The First Trade… Same apple, second bite.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up to 2167.50 still had room to test “higher prior lows” at 2172.50, which it did, and which it held. Its eventual reaction down attacked 2164.00 during the afternoon’s bias-up environment. That bias-up influence enabled a complete recovery to retest 2172.50. But it didn’t prevent another dip closing essentially unchanged from the opening print. That’s a lot of intraday volatility, in a moderate range, to net no movement from the open. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the afternoon’s 2175.50 bias-up target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Can other bias-up influences rescue another drop? Narrow ranging around Thursday’s 2167.50 open/close extended into Europe’s opens. A blip-up to 2169.50 was reversed down more substantially to probe under Thursday’s lows to 2163.25. Its recovery attempt is testing the initial overnight range’s lower-end.

If, then…
Thursday afternoon’s probe of fresh session lows developed during a bias-up environment. That context had all but assured it wouldn’t extend, and in fact, its recovery probed back above its origin. Momentarily, which was long enough to validate the context. Having lapsed, the bias-up environment no longer offers context. But Thursday afternoon’s bias-up target remains outstanding, and should ultimately prevent extending down. Leveraging this attraction above would help to recover the overnight probe under yesterday’s lows — whether before the open, or after gapping down. Since yesterday’s ranging gained no traction for the overnight rally’s effort, probing fresh highs today without gapping up would be very vulnerable to reversing back down sharply  Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to extend through the noon hour.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2163.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2161.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2159.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.