Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 15, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, even without the pre-open Bank of England action. Two of the five 8:30 reports have reliable track records for influencing price action. And reactions they trigger tend to be duplicated by other reports.
BOE policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2137.75 | 2130.50 |
| …would target | 2142.50 | 2135.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2128.25 | 2121.25 |
| …would target | 2122.75 | 2115.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Too much, too early.
Pre-open dip does end-run around sellers.
Timing is everything. This morning’s pattern was unlikely to range narrowly. If not resuming the decline, then a little more backing-and-filling to the upside would be likely.
Breaking under the overnight range at the open would have reflected strong-handed intraday sellers. 
Breaking under the overnight range BEFORE the open only inhibited post-open sellers. So, the 2120.50 opening print surged up to 2125.50, attracting buyers instead of sellers.
Sellers still had something to get out of their system, and produced another dip. But now the dip was originating well AFTER the open. Its downside potential was limited. And even that limited potential only attacked the 2115.50 bias-down signal to 2117.50.
Backing-and-filling to the upside didn’t trigger the 2130.50 bias-up signal. It was probed, but still overlapping it at 10:30 didn’t invalidate the no-bias — regardless of extending to 2134.50, or its overbought RSIs there. And somewhat confirming no-bias remains intact, an 11-point reaction down just attacked 2123.00.
Back above 2128.00 (being tested now) could launch a retest of the 2134.50 high’s overbought RSIs. Back under 2124.25 would start to signal the reaction down had resumed, that a decline required no more backing-and-filling before resuming.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A credible break down from the choppy overnight range should be obvious very earlier during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Maintaining the range’s ~2122.50 lower end through the first 5-10 minutes would become likelier to at least probe above the overnight highs.
That was one of the basic message of this morning’s Tour. Which I repeated as we ended the recording, and the overnight range’s internal support was being probed. That developed into slicing through it to fresh lows, now touching 2120.00. So, just maintaining the break through the open, or not, may suffice for extending the decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Still hovering.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s single-minded rally to 2156.00 was followed by a single-minded reversal that persisted through Tuesday’s noon hour. Tuesday’s cash session had begun by gapping down to and through the relevant 2134.00 level. Extending down to 2112.25 bottomed suddenly as the 30-year’s auction triggered a 30-minute surge to 2129.50. The balance of the afternoon was choppy and wide, but held within the noon hour’s range, recovering 2126.00 into the close..
Overnight action’s new info…
Firming back up to Tuesday’s 2129.50 high pierced it by 1 tick. Dipping through Europe’s opens quickly bottomed at 2121.25. The range has persisted, and has persisted in avoiding any trending.
If, then…
Yesterday’s lows stopped optimistically short of touching Monday’s 2110.50 post-open low. That’s likely to be only temporary, and its eventual retest would likely slice through Sunday night’s lows to 2095.00. Tuesday’s gap down and close under 2134.00 keeps alive the lower attractions that began forming Friday, still needing confirmation from a second consecutive close. Gapping up above 2134.00 would start enticing buyers to accelerate their entries. Holding yesterday afternoon’s 2129.50 high as resistance keeps the door open to sellers.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2132.00 would be likely to trigger the 2130.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.