Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2138.25 | 2130.50 |
| …would target | 2142.25 | 2135.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2123.25 | 2115.50 |
| …would target | 2117.25 | 2109.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Already upon entering Tuesday’s last half-hour, trending any further before the close had become unlikely, although the greater vulnerability remained to the downside. Choppiness persisted through the close anyway, suggesting that the sideways range is not stable. Overnight parameters and opening scenarios are discussed in the Wrap.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Floating above the flames.
Afternoon range seems to be delaying the inevitable.
This afternoon’s 2124.50 late bias-up signal triggered late and attacked its 2130.75 target to within 5 ticks. The 2116.75 had been probed down to 2112.25 where we knew to anticipate obligatory support.
The 17-point rally went above and beyond, but it didn’t alter the bigger picture which still points down. The low has been attacked to within 5 ticks.
That might be all today can offer for predictable patterns. Stopping optimistically short of touching yesterday’s 2110.50 post-open low is likely to be only temporary. Its break would likely slice through Sunday night’s lows to 2095.00.
All of which could still develop today — there’s at least that vulnerability.
Gapping down under 2134.00 and also closing under it keeps alive the trend change pattern that began forming Friday. Not yet confirmed, recovering 2134.00 through tomorrow’s open would undermine it.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night and Monday’s tests of 1.1265 resistance did not resolve in breaking higher Tuesday, further suggesting the eventual break lower remains likely.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight firming up to 1336.50 resolved down Tuesday to a fresh low testing 1323.50, presumably resuming the decline targeting 1296.00-1297.00 so long as bounces continue holding 1332.00 as resistance.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s modest weakness held 18.85 which is the least bit of support still needing to break lower for resuming the drop targeting a retest of prior lows.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s 30-year auction performed horribly, slicing through the 165-20 / 165-30 target to 164-22. The requirement for at least a third lower close is now fulfilled. Closing back above 165-30 would signal the drop is bottoming.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying Monday from the gap down’s test of 44.88 retesting 46.50\ was reversed overnight to gap down Tuesday and pierce under Monday’s low. Closing under 45.80 signals momentum extending down.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially probing higher Tuesday touched last month’s 2.94 high. The four-day sequence was fulfilled by reversing back down into negative territory at 2.88. But the sequence wasn’t entirely successful, as it was recovered back up to 2.94. Regardless, the pattern’s 3.04 target remains in-play, especially so long as 2.88 holds as support.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 14, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Last week’s EIA report had confirmed the prior day’s bullish API data, also duplicating its steep reaction. The two rarely confirm, and more rarely generate similar reactions, which helped to facilitate the next day’s decline. Follow-through could be much lengthier if last week’s relationship were repeated.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET