Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Rangebound, and up.
Support test produces resistance test.
I noted during the pre-market Tour that direction wasn’t the only question to answer this morning. Trending, at all, was still not assured. In fact, this morning’s drop to the bias-down signal has recovered to retest its opening peak, and Friday’s highs. Trending beyond Friday’s range has yet to develop — let alone, to be indicated.
This morning’s 2182.00 bias-up signal held its test and tested its 2174.25 bias-down signal. Now this afternoon’s 2183.50 bias-up signal has been tested, and back under 2180.50 would start to signal another downdraft underway.
The range need no t break either way today. But trending after the bias environment start lapsing would be more credible for extending.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 7, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is interesting for having no influential early reports, but several following items have reliable track records for influencing price action. JOLTS is as relevant as the prior week’s Employment Situation report, so even comporting with it could trigger a similar bullish reaction. Meanwhile, the Fed speaker and later Beige Book release will fuel rate-hike speculation.
John Williams Speaks
TUE 8:30 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
10:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2185.00 | 2183.50 |
| …would target | 2190.50 | 2189.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2178.50 | 2177.00 |
| …would target | 2172.75 | 2171.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Rangebound and down.
Opening surge slingshots back down.
Rallying this morning had to begin immediately to be credible. And even then, immediately rallying would be vulnerable to failure. Reversing down did not require any particular timing.
Firming to open at the 2182.00 bias-up signal added 3 ticks quickly and then lost them quicker. The first half-hour only overlapped 2180.50, continually. But it finally broke lower, triggering no-bias.
An offsetting test of the 2174.25 bias-down signal has been fulfilled already. Probing it down to 2173.00 was recovered through 10:30 to avoid invalidating the no-bias. So, this is likely to morning’s low.
The open’s continual overlap of 2180.50 makes it a candidate for attracting price back up to it. Breaking under 2174.00 would make fresh lows likelier — “no-bias trending” if broken too early, and less able to extend down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The open is being greeted by the same choppy ranging as has defined overnight action. A downleg could develop with no particular timing. An upleg should develop almost immediately if it is credible — and even then, immediately rallying would still be vulnerable to failure.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.