Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Back to business.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up from 2166.00 quickly extended to probe Monday’s 2182.00 prior high by almost 2 points. Reversing back down 12 points through the noon hour still remained more than 5 points into positive territory. The balance of the session was influenced by the lack of influence, being a Friday afternoon, and price drifted back up to 2179.00 into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open resumed Friday afternoon’s upward drift back up to 2182.00. That held through the night, before reacting down to 2175.00 during the Labor Day holiday morning. Monday night;s action has drifted back up to test 2182.25.
If, then…
Last week crossed its hump without breaking under prior lows, despite a couple of attempts. Now the holiday is being exited without yet converting the tests of support into a break above resistance. An early rally attempt would be more credible for extending higher than would a delayed attempt, but an early rally attempt would still be vulnerable to failure. Retracing Friday’s gap up could occur on any timetable.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2183.50 would be likely to trigger the 2182.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2180.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 6, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: PMI is Tuesday’s only report with any track record for influencing price action. ISM does not, but an extreme reading could have an impact if PMI had done so already.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Gallup US ECI
2:00 PM ET
Tonight’s Globex link to chaRTroom
Despite the three-day holiday weekend, Globex opens normally this evening at 6:00 p m ET, and trades through Monday morning at 1:00 pm ET.
You can monitor action in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2183.00 | 2182.00 |
| …would target | 2188.00 | 2187.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2175.25 | 2174.25 |
| …would target | 2169.75 | 2168.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
It’s too late for strong-handed sellers to produce the substantial reversal they could have created if more influential this morning. But under 2170.75 would still target 2166.00, and just a little lower than that could still pretend to collapse. Back above 2177.00 would all but marginalize sellers for the day. The balance of the session need not rally, but could still firm into the close.
Globex will open normally Sunday night despite the holiday. The chaRTroom will re-open normally then, too, and I’ll be available to update charts as needed… I’m gone for the balance of the session, but the chaRTroom remains open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.