Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The favorable knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s payrolls report was retraced immediately, and reversed into negative territory to confirm the bounce from Wednesday’s close was likely only a temporary correction..
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing Thursday above 1315.70 had indicated a much bigger detour on the way to targets under 1300.00. Friday’s spike up in reaction to payrolls touched 1334.00 before reversing back down. Just closing under 1332.00 maintains the decline, and under 1329.00 suggests it is extending back down without further delay.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking up on Friday’s payrolls extended to nearly fill one outstanding gap above. Often gaps are filled in pairs, so actually filling the 19.45 gap would likely extend to 19.85. Not filling the first gap leaves the decline vulnerable to resuming, at least to probe fresh lows inn tandem with Gold so a durable bottom could form.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s spike up above 171-00 reacted down sharply to 168-25, filling the week-old gap below. It didn’t require being filled, so closing under it would open the floodgates to selling. It is otherwise one last chance to form a base that launches a recovery.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up on Friday’s payrolls report immediately tested the 43.90-44.20 bounce limit, probing it intraday to almost fill a gap outstanding at 44.60. Regardless, at least an eventual third lower close remains outstanding from Wednesday’s confirmed breakout.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s drop back under the 2.72 sell signal didn’t extend down Friday. Optimally, the dip would be rejected altogether by recovering sharply if 2.72 were holding as support. Closing only slightly lower Friday would be only tepid confirmation of Thursday’s break.
Mid-day Update… And announcement.
We’ll do an early Market Wrap at 1:30 pm ET. It will be expanded since there’s no Saturday Review. All are welcome… I’ll be gone for the day after that.
The pre-open surge into a Rising Wedge had resolved aggressively to the upside. 
We discussed it during the Market Tour, and its potential influence on intraday action.
That potential influence required post-open patterns to form with a similar legacy. In fact, the inability to break convincingly above the 2181.25-2182.00 renewed bias-up target did create reversal potential. And the morning drifted lower.
Now the lower quadrant of the pre-open Rising Wedge is being tested at 2173.50. This could be the pullback’s end. There is room for noise down to 2170.75, but any lower would target the surge’s 2166.00 origin.
Sliding sharply today depended greatly on already trending down more deeply this morning. The noon hour wasn’t greeted low enough to enable a collapse. There’s still a vulnerability, but not the same risk. And the balance of the session could simply firm and bounce if 2173.50 holds its test as support.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 5, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: US markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Overnight Globex opens normally and trades through Monday morning, then re-opens nomally Monday evening.
Globex open
SUN 6:00 PM ET
Globex close
1:00 PM ET
Globex open
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2183.00 | 2182.00 |
| …would target | 2188.75 | 2187.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2172.50 | 2171.50 |
| …would target | 2167.00 | 2166.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Site difficulties persist.
The pre-open surge extended through the 2177.00 bias-up target to greet the open at 2179.00. A blip-up touched the 2181.25-2182.00 renewed bias-up target and reacted down. Fresh highs up to 2183.75 continually overlapped 2181.25-2182.00.
Maintaining a gap up above prior highs through the open tends to be impossible to reverse down. And this has gone on to be a bias-up environment — renewed, no less.But 1-minute RSI diverged negatively into the high. And a reaction down is retesting the 2179.00 open. If the bias environment drifts flat-to-lower, then late-afternoon would be vulnerable to sliding sharply into the weekend. But sellers get only one bite at this apple to reverse the trend down. Back above 2181.25-2182.00 could trigger a much larger short-squeeze.