Posts by Rod David
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
So, the first market reactions are in from this weekend’s Jackson Hole orgy of central bankers, sycophants and hangers-on. Globex has opened down 3-4 points from Friday’s last bounce attacking its 2170.75 target. That’s still up 5-7 points from Friday’s test of its 3-week old gap, which had created Friday’s bottom.
chaRTroom access will be made available at the top of the hour. I’ll annotate any patterns that appear and post comments as needed, and then see you in the morning.
REMINDER: No Saturday Review.
As a reminder, there is no Saturday Review this week. Please don’t hesitate to request any analysis that you need. Meanwhile, enjoy the weekend!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2179.75 | 2177.75 |
| …would target | 2185.00 | 2183.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2165.50 | 2163.50 |
| …would target | 2160.25 | 2158.25 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday ended with bounce, sizable by most standards, but somewhat tame compared to the intraday action preceding it. The three-week old gap back down to 2160.00 had been filled down to 2157.50, but no new sponsorship was able to extend that into a new downleg. Its reaction up attacked its 2170.75 target to within 2 ticks.
And where was the close? At 2168.00. Not above to indicate that sellers had lost traction, and not under it to put into play lower objectives. AT 2168.00.
Closing under 2177.00 has indicated the massive topping pattern is probably rolling over. Closing under 2168.00 would have indicated it is extending down. And under 2156.50 would tell us that extension is targeting a test of 2141.50. At a minimum. Gapping up Monday above 2188.00 would give the pattern another opportunity to probe fresh highs first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Also: Early market Wrap!
I’m able to do a Market Wrap today, EARLY at 3:03 PM ET.
The morning’s plunge corrected to attack 2168.00 but didn’t reacted down deeply enough to trigger bias-down. So, the afternoon’s 2162.00 bias-down signal defined the bias environment’s lower-end.
Until the 2:30 bias environment lapsing came within view.
Spiking down at 2:15 probed fresh lows at 2157.50.The three-week old gap back to 2160.00 is now being neutralized. More than another point lower under 2156.50 would be likely to tumble into the close.
That’s not much likelier than the alternative, which is to range flat-to-sideways. Back above 2163.50 could even drift higher, with room for noise up to 2171.50.