Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 30, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Consumer Confidence is Tuesday’s only influential report and it happens also to be high-profile. Any reaction to its pre-open release is likely to be duplicated in reaction to post-open reports
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Eric Rosengren Speaks
3:15 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2183.75 | 2182.00 |
| …would target | 2188.50 | 2187.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2175.75 | 2174.25 |
| …would target | 2169.75 | 2168.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Good to the last pop.
Bias-up signal held, held on to.
Deceptively calm overnight narrow ranging spiked up from the 2169.75 open. Just recovering 2170.75-2171.50 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility had made the 2177.75 bias-up signal’s test likely. Surging through the opening 15 minutes of volatility had already come within 3 ticks of 2177.75.
Testing and retesting 2177.75 didn’t break it. But neither was it rejected, still being overlapped when the grace period lapsed at 10:30. Holding its test would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2163.50 bias-down signal, and triggering bias-up would have targeted 2183.00.
The pullback limit is being violated, and back under 2175.00 would target 2166.00. There is otherwise no bias requirement this morning.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A mostly narrow 4-5 point range began breaking higher an hour before the open. Friday’s late bounce target of 2170.75 was probed by 1 point. Exiting the open any higher would likely avoid triggering bias-down. It is meanwhile resistance, and its reaction down would likely test 2166.00 support.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Frighteningly calm, again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
A narrow 3-4 point overnight range was deceptively calm. Then Friday morning’s rat-a-tat-tat barrage of headlines from Jackson Hole triggered a first-hour 17-point swing. Its 2186.75 high was reversed back down under three-week old lows, filling a an old gap back at 2160.00 down to 2157.50. Friday ended with a 13-point bounce to 2170.25, a 38.2% retracement of the morning’s high.
Overnight action’s new info…
More so than being narrow, last night’s 5-point range is again relatively calm. Sunday night’s open had dipped briefly down to 2164.50. Its eventual retest is now probing the interim high by 1 point up to 2169.50.
If, then…
Closing at 2168.00 avoided putting into play a lower objective, but closing again under 2177.00 indicates the massive topping pattern is probably rolling over. Extending under 2168.00 would have indicated the massive topping pattern is extending down, and under 2156.50 would target a test of 2141.50. At a minimum. Gapping up Monday above 2188.00 would give the pattern another opportunity to probe fresh highs first. Otherwise, resuming Friday’s mid-day slide today would be difficult without the open already gapping down to or through Friday’s low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2171.50 would be likely to trigger the 2173.50 bias-down signal at 10:!5. Exiting the open above 2166.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.