Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
SPECIAL NOTE: Today’s issue is published early, and there is no post-market Wrap, due to travel. Thank you!
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday back above the 1.1295 sell signal that had triggered Wednesday was recaptured by noon. Maintaining its break through the close would keep alive the reversal, and closing under Wednesday’s low would confirm.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Thursday under all prior lows created “unfinished business below” at its open that would prevent any interim recovery from gaining traction until that opening gap is retested from above. Meanwhile, a second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm Wednesday’s break out requiring an eventual third lower close. And the current leg is likely targeting 1296.00-1297.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday morning had not extended lower so much as briefly pierced under Wednesday’s lows. Closing lower would confirm Wednesday’s breakout. Not rejecting the break would keep alive this leg’s 18.35 target.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing lower to 171-10 Thursday morning reacted back up above 171-22, which must maintain its break to put into play fresh lows under 171-00. A recovery must begin by closing above 172-16, and then also confirmed above 173-04.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday morning showed no greater interest in breaking under Tuesday’s 46.60 low than did Wednesday. It also showed no greater interest in bouncing off of it. Any lower close would be likely to extend down, still needing confirmation from a second consecutive lower close.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength. Its knee-jerk reaction up was maintained into the noon hour. Closing in positive territory would fulfill the minimum required third higher close created by Tuesday’s confirmed breakout.
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2181.00 | 2179.00 |
| …would target | 2187.00 | 2185.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2172.75 | 2170.75 |
| …would target | 2167.25 | 2165.25 |
| Signal status: NO BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers balk.
SPECIAL NOTE: I will be away from the screens on the afternoons of both Thursday and Friday, this week and next, Thank you for allowing me to be of personal assistance in a family matter.
Pre-open attacks on yesterday’s 2168.75 low had stopped optimistically short of touching it, suggesting it would at least be probed. Even that would not assure sustaining a break lower. So, the actual inflection point was calculated to be 1 point lower at 2167.75.
2167.75 was touched, but it did not break. Its touch inflected back up sharply to test the 2171.50 bias-down signal as resistance. It was recovered through 10:15 to trigger no-bias.
Actually, a very late blip-down touched 2171.50 within the 3-minute window around 10:15. The grace period held it, but it hasn’t yet been rewarded. Back under 2170.75 would undermine the no-bias signal. Otherwise, an offsetting test of the 2168.75 bias-up signal is in-play.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The last overnight bounce to 2175.00 was retraced entirely back down to its 2169.75 low, and through it by 3 ticks. Shallow ranging there hasn’t recovered. Nor has it extended just another tick to at least touch yesterday’s late-afternoon 2168.75 low. That still reflects optimism, or restrained pessimism, either one being potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Sellers at the gate.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
SPECIAL NOTE: I will be away from the screens on the afternoons of both Thursday and Friday, this week and next, Thank you for allowing me to be of personal assistance in a family matter.
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open immediately resumed Tuesday’s slide under 2185.00, to a late-afternoon low of 2168.75. A last-minute 7-point bounce peaked 1 point short of 2177.00, which had been the decline’s likely objective. Recovering it would have allowed the drop since Tuesday’s open to be considered only a temporary correction on the way to new highs. Closing under 2177.00 instead suggests the massive topping pattern we’ve been monitoring is now rolling over.
Overnight action’s new info…
Relatively narrow sideways ranging continued to hold 1 point under 2177.00 resistance. Sliding into and out of Europe’s opens attacked yesterday’s 2168.75 low to within 1 point at 2169.75. Bouncing back up to 2175.00 has been retraced to within 1 point of 2169.75..
If, then…
Gapping open Thursday back above 2177.00 would not be as relevant as if Wednesday had closed above it already. Rejecting Wednesday’s close under 2177.00 would now require gapping up above the 2180.50-2181.25 area. For starters. Any shallower strength would be likely to resume the decline for a third consecutive session — and probably more aggressively as participants start getting the point. Otherwise, attempting to reject the decline wouldn’t ensure extending back up to new highs, and would remain vulnerable to attempting another downleg anyway.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2170.00 would be likely to trigger the 2171.50 bias-down signal at 10:!5. Exiting the open above 2177.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2180.50 would be likely to trigger the 2178.75 bias-up signal.