Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2183.50 | 2181.25 |
| …would target | 2189.25 | 2187.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2176.25 | 2174.00 |
| …would target | 2170.50 | 2168.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Delayed instant gratification.
Post-open follow-through is rejected.
The open was greeted by a bounce off of the ~2176.00 overnight low’s retest. But the 2178.00 open reacted down immediately to fresh lows testing 2173.75 support.
Support held. Not without multiple attempts to break lower. And not without the opening 15 minutes still testing Friday afternoon’s ~2176.00 low.
Extending down wasn’t likely. Having gapped down to Friday afternoon’s low, extending down would have formed a “session-long decline.” This setup isn’t often credible when it overlaps a weekend. Also, there’s a confirmed bullish WedEX already in-play. While it doesn’t influence the open, it should selfishly control price action beyond it.
Now another bullish condition is triggered. Having held a test of the 2176.00 bias-down signal through the bias timing window, an offsetting test of the 2185.00 bias-up signal is in-play. That’s effectively a retest of the overnight high, and of the recent range’s upper-end.
And it’s on the way to retesting last Monday’s new highs. Which continues to be the likely resolution, especially so long as this afternoon doesn’t retrace much of this morning’s recovery.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight probe above Friday’s high has been retraced back down to Friday afternoon’s ~2176.00 low. Friday afternoon’s rally from ~2176.00 had been retraced already overnight, so this extra dip is bordering on overkill. Holding its support or preferably reacting up sharply through the open would maintain the bullish WedEX expectation — if not also confirm it. Dipping any deeper through the open would be difficult to recover, let alone to reverse up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… The wind-up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s gap down tried extending, more in terms of points than in time. The open contained the 2172.50 bottom, 12 points off of Thursday’s highs. The morning’s bounce to 2181.50 had reacted down to enter Friday afternoon’s bias environment at 2176.50. Trending up to fresh session highs at 2183.00 was entirely consistent with a bullish WedEX. No unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Europe’s opens once again provided a paradigm shift in overnight price action. Sunday night’s flat open had soon begun sliding, eventually retracing back down to Friday afternoon’s bias environment entry at 2176.50. Blipping-down 1 point deeper at Europe’s opens only stretched the rubber band to snap back up. Thursday’s highs were retested up to 2184.50. That paradigm shift isn’t yet necessarily tectonic — its reaction back down into negative territory is testing 2178.00
If, then…
This weekend’s Saturday Review described the potential for retesting last week’s 2188.50-2190.50 highs, before a durable downleg could begin. Last night’s choppy overnight range requires opinions to be pressed, and defended. Recovering the overnight dip and reversing to probe Friday’s highs suggests buyers are percolating. Friday’s bullish WedEX performance enhances this morning’s opportunity to push price higher, regardless of the afternoon’s resolution. Gapping down under Friday afternoon’s 2175.75 low may be the only way to start trending down this morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2180.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2176.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2174.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Globex has opened… flat. That’s not surprising since no influential geopolitical events developed during the weekend. The proximity to last Monday’s high, and the bullish WedEX, may be more influential than anything else. I’ll annotate any patterns that appear and post comments as needed.