Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/20/16)… So close, and yet so far.
Last Monday’s new high seems so far, having printed a week ago. But it’s actually very close, perhaps a strong morning away. That feature speaks as much to the ongoing rally’s strength, as to its likely near-term resolution. Interpreting the variety of patterns and behaviors is this weekend’s initial focus.
Meanwhile, we’re in the middle of a bullish WedEX, and Friday was right in-line. How that should impact Monday morning, and why, is discussed in detail. So is the comparison among the three major market indexes as a way to gauge the stability or fragility of big money sentiment. The Labor Day holiday weekend’s proximity and its effect on price action is also discussed.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
VRX, CS, MU, BABA, MS, BAC, C, GDXJ
08/20/2016 09:31:29 Mark Glezer: gm
08/20/2016 09:31:31 G: audio good
08/20/2016 09:57:31 Bill G: What is the expectation following an active vs a passive bullish Wedex?
08/20/2016 10:04:54 Mark Glezer: downturn should be obvious by Tue afternoon if it happens next week?
08/20/2016 10:04:58 Bill G: thanks
08/20/2016 10:07:30 c: wedex- love it
08/20/2016 10:13:38 Mark Glezer: VRX, CS, MS, BAC, C
08/20/2016 10:14:15 David B: MU,BABA
08/20/2016 10:17:13 Mark Glezer: can still short for a long term?
08/20/2016 10:34:02 Mark Glezer: do u still see BAC getting to 17?
08/20/2016 10:34:51 Mark Glezer: thx much
08/20/2016 10:36:51 Mark Glezer: does your expectation of a move higher in a few financials plays into a liklihood of a extention higher in ES albeit temporary?
08/20/2016 10:37:17 Mark Glezer: play
08/20/2016 10:40:12 Mark Glezer: thx
08/20/2016 10:40:23 David B: thanks
08/20/2016 10:40:25 c: TKS
Saturday Review Link
Except for Monday’s gap up and probe above all prior highs, this week’s price action was contained entirely within the prior week’s range. Calm before the storm? If the market wants to get an upleg or downleg out of the way before Labor Day, then it will need to start soon.
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review (the last until after Labor Day). After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2187.50 | 2185.00 |
| …would target | 2192.25 | 2190.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2178.25 | 2176.00 |
| …would target | 2174.25 | 2171.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Entering the afternoon’s bias environment at 2176.50 and trending up to fresh session highs at 2183.00 is entirely consistent with a bullish WedEX. While there’s no assurance Monday’s open won’t gap down, post-open action is now substantially more likely to trend up, too, and more aggressively than Friday afternoon.
Apart from that, no unfinished business was left outstanding. The open’s gap wasn’t under prior lows, requiring a retest. And the gap back up to Thursday’s close wasn’t filled entirely, but the lower-end of its structure was tested. The prior week’s range was broken only temporarily on Monday. Calm before the storm?
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us at 9:30 am ET for Saturday Review in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Upping antes.
WedEX bullishness playing out.
WedEX’s bullish influence began upon entering the bias environment at 1:20-1:30. Rallying from that window’s ~2176.50 low hasn’t looked back. The final hour’s entry was probing the 2181.25 resistance that had held tests this morning and during the noon hour.
That’s now breaking higher to 2183.00, still more than 1 point under yesterday’s cash session close, and natural resistance. Bullish WedEX doesn’t assure extending through it.
Extending higher today would make bullish WedEX likely also to influence Monday morning. But it wouldn’t prevent gapping down, let alone require gapping up, so hold-long might not be compelling.