Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday only back to Tuesday and Wednesday’s highs around 1.1330 didn’t reverse momentum down. But it did prevent a second consecutive higher close from confirming Thursday’s breakout. And that keeps the door open to reversing momentum down and reinstating the decline targeting a retest of Brexit lows.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping back down under 1348.00 Friday once again defended against this wide. sloppy, choppy range from breaking higher, maintaining potential for fresh lows at 1329.00-1332.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already having fulfilled the 19.65 target at recent lows didn’t prevent probing fresh lows overnight down to 19.22 and gapping down Friday to test 19.30 intraday. Almost any lower close could send the pattern down to 18.80 or 18.40.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday under 171-26 all but signaled the recent intraday tests of its resistance had held, and that new lows are in-play. All but signaled. Closing back above the prior week’s low after probing under it intraday does maintain potential for recovering 172-16 to launch another rally leg .
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Thursday and trending through the 46.80-47.60 bounce target to test 48.40 was not rejected Friday. Neither did it extend higher, as the session only ranged narrowly sideways. That leaves open a window for its abrupt rejection back under 46.80. Any shallower dip into the 46.80-47.60 range would still be able to recover and resume the rally.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday to Thursday’s 2.61 low was a delayed reaction to having maintained the favorable knee-jerk reaction to its EIA report. Probing lower intraday to 2.58 helped to confirm the gap back down to 2.55 would likely be filled, and also probed to new lows at or under 2.50 before another credible rally could begin. Only closing above 2.70 can suggest otherwise.
Mid-day Update… WedEX time!
So far, so bullish.
This morning’s recovery up to 2181.25 resistance ranged narrowly sideways into the noon hour. And halfway through it. The noon hour’s second half slid to 2176.00.
Noon hour action is not yet subject to the WedEX influence. Bias environment is. And since entering the bias environment, price has improved to test 2179.50.
That’s in-line with a bullish WedEX. But it’s only a bounce, and extending to fresh highs above 2181.25 would be helpful confirmation. Back under 2176.75 would start to signal a new downleg underway, which would not be appropriate for a bullish WedEX.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 22 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week’s econ calendar starts off slowly… and stays that way. Except for a lot of Housing Sector data, the high-profile and influential stuff comes much later in the week.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2184.25 | 2182.00 |
| …would target | 2189.25 | 2187.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2177.25 | 2175.00 |
| …would target | 2172.00 | 2169.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… So bearish that it’s bullish.
Sellers already neutralized AND rejected.
Opening just under yesterday afternoon’s 2180.25 low could have recovered it to avoid forming a “session-long decline” setup. Not that the setup was very credible, rejecting only a shallow bounce. 
But avoiding it would have sent a bullish statement.
Anyway, it wasn’t rejected. Post-open action immediately resumed last night’s plunge. But…
Extending to fresh lows came within 3 ticks of the 2172.00 bias-down target. That’s close enough to neutralize it from becoming “unfinished business below,” an otherwise irrelevant observation this morning. But…
Bias-down was invalidated. Despite triggering it at 10:15, and not invoking a grace period, recovering it through 10:30 has invalidated it. It’s too late to put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal — this is not a synthetic “no-bias,” which needed to trigger by 10:15. But…
It’s bullish. Follow-through has tested fresh post-open highs up to 2181.50. Potentially very bullish. Today’s other influences — such as the bullish WedEX — could be that much more productive. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment back under its 2177.00 bias-down signal would be bearish.
I pointed out during this morning’s pre-open Tour that several setups were contradicting each other. Yet, rather than paralyze price action, this would increase volatility. The market doesn’t try to disappoint the most participants at any given time. It tries ultimately to satisfy everyone. This is how it keeps their loyalty.