Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The plunge’s 2175.25 low was only attacked to within 1 tick, but not broken. Not, yet. Perhaps not at all — the 2179.50 interim high is being attacked to within 2 ticks.
Recovering back above yesterday afternoon’s 2180.25 low through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would negate the potential “session-long decline” setup. That would go a long way to ensuring the Bullish WedEX’s afternoon influence. But it wouldn’t necessarily prevent backing-and-filling back down this morning.
Triggering the 2177.00 bias-down signal would be the most overtly bearish indication. And even that wouldn’t prevent WedEX from being bullish. But it wouldn’t help.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Slip.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon’s rally gained no traction for its effort, such as it was.bullish. Closing action retested the morning’s 2184.25 peak, recovering from the noon hour’s 2178.00 oversold low. This was after the session avoided backing-and-filling when its prior session had not gained traction either. No unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-slightly lower ranging touched 2181.25 before bouncing to within 2-3 ticks of Thursdays close. That coincided with Europe’s opens, which triggered a steep, deep plunge attacking 2175.00. Its reaction up to 2179.50 has been retraced almost entirely back to the plunge’s low.
If, then…
This afternoon’s Bullish WedEX influence should start becoming evident after the noon hour. That’s going to be difficult if that same window is not yet allowed to rally, which it won’t be. Yesterday afternoon’s rally didn’t gain traction for its effort, so not gapping up makes rallying unlikely until the final 60-90 minutes. And the open is certainly not indicated to gap up… Meanwhile, gapping down under yesterday afternoon’s low after having trended up into the close is going to form a “session-long decline” setup. This instance is based on very small measurements, and its size does matter, so I’m not letting it override indications by other setups.
I would suggest giving sellers every benefit of the doubt for the morning if the open trends down. I’ll give sellers every benefit of the doubt this afternoon if the morning trends down. And Monday could be very ugly if the session trends down. Avoiding bias-down is critical to resuming the rally at all.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2174.25 would be likely to trigger the 2177.00 bias-down signal at 10P:15. Exiting the open above 2179.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2177.00 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2187.50 | 2185.00 |
| …would target | 2192.50 | 2190.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2179.50 | 2177.00 |
| …would target | 2174.50 | 2172.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s rally gained no traction for its effort, such as it was.bullish. The morning’s 2184.25 peak was retested off of the noon hour’s 2178.00 low. But despite that momentum, the afternoon bias environment trying to gain traction, and being within proximity of prior highs, no traction was signaled.
So, sellers weren’t marginalized but they weren’t productive. Extending higher without delay must gap up Friday. Not gapping up would be unlikely to extend higher before late-afternoon — which would be too late to fulfill the bullish WedEX signal. Gapping up is likely, but not gapping up could range narrowly around around Thursday’s high before rallying into the weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Out of the penalty box.
Printing fresh afternoon highs.
Resuming yesterday afternoon’s rally was essentially forbidden before this afternoon’s bias environment had lapsed. We’re past that. This morning’s 2184.25 high is now being attacked to within 1 tick.
Although not required, extending higher is possible, and there’s plenty of reward. The bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high, and just needs confirmation that its recovery is gaining traction. The final hour didn’t do it, so the 3:10-3:20 window must extend to even higher highs.
That window is now open. There isn’t necessarily a downside alternative to rallying which would create a sell signal.