Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
.Narrow ranging Wednesday morning waited out the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. Its reaction spiked back up to Tuesday’s high. Still monitoring the pattern for new parameters.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Wednesday to 1348.00 rejected Tuesday ‘s close above the 1352.50 bounce limit. Little follow-through preceded the FOMC Minutes. A blip-down to 1340.50 reacted sharply to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1355.00 close. The 1332.00 objective remains outstanding, and would be put back in play under 1348.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s open gapped down although the overnight lows had already tested the pullback’s 19.65 minimum objective. Retesting it intraday was followed by a blip-down to 19.37 in reaction to the FOMC Minutes. Its recovery back up to 19.80 was still under Tuesday’s close, so not credible for reversing momentum up.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s lower lows didn’t extend down Wednesday morning. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close Wednesday allows another rally attempt. The reaction to FOMC Minutes barely managed to test 171-26 resistance, whose recovery is the minimum to start anticipating another rally effort.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Barely nicking the lower-end of the 46.80-47.60 bounce target Wednesday had already reacted down intraday, but not deeply enough or aggressively enough to suggest momentum is yet reversing down.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing a couple of cents above the current trading range’s 2.63 highs failed to extend higher, and was retraced back into the range. Closing there, with the recent gap outstanding below, would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness likely to react down on the news.
Mid-day Update… Just another minute.
FOMC Minutes just ahead.
This morning’s 2174.25 bias-down signal had put into play its 2168.00 bias-down target. Having hovered 
just above 2168.00 for so much of the bias environment, eventually testing it became likely also to visit 2166.00.
A 5-point drop finally broke the range, testing and retesting 2166.00.
Reacting up violated the drop’s bounce limit and then triggered an inflection point, extending already back up to 2174.25. Having been unfinished business below and this morning’s bias-down signal, and the independently calculated early sell signal, 2174.25 is a likely candidate for at least near-term resistance.
The noon hour’s recovery rally was a reaction to dovish comments from a Fed speaker. Now hawkish FOMC Minutes can more easily trigger a reaction down. Back under 2170.75 would target 2167.00.Absorbing less dovish FOMC comments could extend the recovery, triggered back above 2177.00, which is this afternoon’s bias-up target.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 18, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Philly Fed is the only Fed survey with a reliable record for influencing price action. More so, any reaction to pre-open reports is likely to be duplicated by reactions to post-open reports. And the post-open LEI is another high-profile influential report.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
John Williams Speaks
4:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2174.75 | 2172.00 |
| …would target | 2179.50 | 2177.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2167.75 | 2165.25 |
| …would target | 2162.75 | 2160.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Clearing the decks.
Opening plunge satisfying objectives.
Unfinished business left outstanding yesterday at 2174.25 was neutralized overnight. Testing it intraday would have been likely to include 2172.00. 
Avoiding its test required isolating the overnight lows by recovering through the open.
Which the open did not do. Greeting the open at yesterday’s 2175.25 cash session close was like opening the floodgates.
Fresh lows quickly pierced 2174.25. Knowing that its test would include 2172.00 helped to anticipate breaking under an inflection point’s 3-minute low to confirm new sponsorship arriving. Extending under 2172.00 through 9:45 helped to anticipate triggering the 2174.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. And now triggering bias-down at 10:15 makes its 2168.00 bias-down target likely to be tested.
Actually, already testing 2168.00 to within 3 ticks has satisfied it. It’s still an attraction, especially until a bounce limit is violated. But it won’t become “unfinished business below” if left outstanding. It’s too late for a break under 2168.00 to renew the bias-down signal. But this is still a bias-down environment, and lower lows could test 2166.00 and 2160.00.
Currently, no buy setup is nearby, and 2173.50 must be recovered to begin signaling momentum reversing up. Having expended so much selling pressure so quickly and satisfying a couple of targets, it might start proving difficult to extend deeper with FOMC Minutes just ahead.