Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The recovery attempt from 2173.50 has probed a little further back above yesterday’s lows. Not by much, just by another point up to 2178.00. That would suffice to isolate the overnight lows, and post-open action trending up without much delay would be credible for extending higher intraday. Otherwise, not quickly extending higher would become increasingly likely to resume the overnight drop to fresh lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Delayed gratification is little gratification, at all.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap down to 2181.25 erased all of Monday’s gap up from Friday’s 2180.00 close. Immediate follow-through to 2177.00 was recovered back up to 2182.50, setting the tone for ranging choppily around 2180.00 through the noon hour. Only then was the open’s low probed, not by much and not for long, barely testing Friday’s 2175.50 low. Fresh session lows printed at 3 minutes within the cash session close, and “unfinished business below” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2174.25 bias-down target. So, holding short through the close was compelling, but not optimal, since sellers didn’t gain traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially bouncing back to 2180.00, another point was added into Europe’s opens. But that.only triggered a one-hour plunge to fresh lows at 2173.50. Its reaction has so far been resisted by yesterday morning’s 2177.00 low
If, then…
Tuesday morning’s unfinished business below is neutralized. Its intraday test had been likely to include 2172.00. That could be moot if the overnight dip has been isolated by recovering it already at Wednesday’s open. Gapping up above 2181.25-2182.50 could even form a “session-long rally.” Otherwise, testing 2172.00 would likely give way to 2166.00 and 2160.00. This afternoon’s FOMC Minutes should be greeted anxiously as it possibly confirms recently raised odds for hiking interest rates sooner. WedEX may trigger at the close.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2172.00 would be likely to trigger the 2174.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2177.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2184.25 | 2181.25 |
| …would target | 2190.00 | 2187.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2177.25 | 2174.25 |
| …would target | 2171.00 | 2168.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday afternoon’s two fresh afternoon lows had been maintained when coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close. That makes a compelling hold-short through the close. But not optimal, since the final hour wasn’t entered under the bias environment low to gain traction.
Regardless, the morning’s 2175.25 bias-down target remains “unfinished business below”, likely to be tested down to 2172.00, possibly probed down to 2160.00 and lower.
Buyers gained no traction, so gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday’s 2182.50 high would enable trending back up. Which would be interesting, given that the close may form a WedEX signal.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up sharply Tuesday removes the 1.1175 sell signal’s near-term influence. Although its slight break Friday wasn’t confirmed Monday, that sequence had not formed a durable base to launch a new rally leg. And gapping up doesn’t make it any more credible. But rejecting the rally immediately isn’t likely, even in the most bearish scenario, so I’m monitoring one more session before identifying new parameters.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply Tuesday back to the range’s upper-end wasn’t any likelier to extend than was Friday’s opening spike up. In fact, almost the entire gap was retraced before noon. But the 1352.70 bounce limit was probed again into the afternoon, and should hold as resistance for optimal confirmation that 1332.00 remain in-play.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up sharply Tuesday was retraced entirely through the morning and into negative territory. That didn’t extend down, but 19.90 held as resistance to prevent sellers buyers from gaining traction.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Surging at Tuesday’s open to touch Monday’s high was literally as much strength as possible without actually reversing the trend back up. It held, and reversed down under 171-22 to test 171-02. Closing lower again Wednesday would make a buy signal unlikely to trigger before new lows were probed
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s breakout was on-track for producing its eventual higher close, which is required after being confirmed Monday. The likely target area at 46.80-47.60 was attacked to within a dime, so probing it Wednesday and closing negative would be a likely top.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow ranging Tuesday morning did not resemble the initial strength that would have been likely to extend sharply higher through the day. That setup is no longer relevant, although gapping up above the 2.62 prior high would at least suggest a bottom has formed.