Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2184.50 | 2180.00 |
| …would target | 2190.00 | 2185.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2178.00 | 2173.50 |
| …would target | 2171.25 | 2166.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday wasn’t likely to confirm Friday’s breakout with a second consecutive higher close. Not even if Sunday night or Monday morning were to probe above Friday’s highs. Both Sunday night and Monday morning did probe above Friday’s highs, but Monday still closed negative. So, Friday’s new trend high close still requires at least one more higher close, but it wouldn’t be any likelier to become trending.
Meanwhile, the anchor of Monday’s open — maintaining its gap up above all prior highs through the first 15 minutes — kept its foot on the brakes as price slowly drove downhill Monday. The gravity attracting price down that hill is its 2171.00 objective, which was created in the morning. Not being met the same day makes 1-2 lower attractions likely to be met, too. That’s 2166.00 and 2160.00 from Friday’s pre-open surge and the gap back down to Thursday’s close.
Not extending down Tuesday, and instead bouncing first, would be attracted to Sunday night’s 2183.00 “new Globex trend extreme”, A new trend high close would be likelier than not. But it would have to be aggressive to even begin suggesting a top is not forming.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrow ranging session didn’t try rejecting last week’s drop into the weekend, so suddenly rallying Tuesday would be suspicious and likely to fail.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Lower lows overnight greeted had recovered much before Monday’s open, but not all as ranging intraday around Friday’s 1342.00 low threatened a second consecutive lower close that to confirm Friday’s break lower and to require an eventual third lower close.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sharply lower lows overnight attacking 19.50 were recovered before Monday’s open, letting intraday action fluctuate very narrowly around Friday’s close without confirming its break, and without requiring an eventual third lower close.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s drop extended down overnight and through Monday’s open down to 170-21, but ended the morning bouncing back up to 171-22 resistance. The afternoon was spent there, too, as the relevant level behaved much more like a magnet, and much less like an inflection point. But its recovery is still able to identify a recovery underway, or not.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and extending higher through Monday’s open eventually up to test the 43.30 bounce limit. There is little room or time to further delay reversing down to resume the decline next targeting 36.60.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not immediately recovering 2.80 at Monday’s open suggested a different bottom must form by first testing 2.71 Monday and then closing back in positive territory above 2.77. The dip held 2.71 and recovered up to 2.77, but not closing above it. So, closing above 2.80 is now required to resume the rally.
Mid-day Update… The excitement of new highs (yawn).
Another narrow range.
This morning’s post-open drop to 2175.00 reacted up to 2178.25 during the bias environment. And that has reacted back down to 2175.00.
Not still trending away from the open helps to confirm it being an anchor. Having maintained the gap up above prior highs through the opening 15 minutes, any counter-trend action is likely only temporary.
Meanwhile, still not recovering also helps to confirm there is “unfinished business below.” The offsetting test of this morning’s 2171.00 bias-down signal remains outstanding.
Unfortunately, being stuck all this time between a rock and a hard place doesn’t make the first break’s direction any likelier. Or its ultimate reversal. The afternoon bias environment will soon come within view of lapsing, and might finally resolve the standoff.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 9, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The slow news week continues, as Tuesday’s calendar also has no high-profile or influential econ report scheduled..
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET