Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 10, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday brings the week’s first — and almost only — influential econ reports. Neither is very high-profile, but each can and has impacted price action. JOLTS does so more when it contradicts the prior week’s Employment Situation report. EIA does so at least momentarily when Crude Oil reacts..
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2190.75 | 2186.25 |
| …would target | 2196.50 | 2192.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2183.50 | 2179.00 |
| …would target | 2177.75 | 2173.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Monitoring for melted wax.
An opportunity to neutralize the upside.
The open blipped-down to touch 2176.00, and then bounced back to and through the 2179.00 overnight high.
Another blip-down was recovered to higher highs. The 2180.00 bias-up signal triggered late after extending to 2182.50.
That’s new intraday highs. That’s also 2 ticks short of Sunday night’s 2183.00 new Globex trend extreme that requires intraday retest. And its 3 points short of this morning’s 2185.50 bias-up target. Meanwhile, overbought RSIs at 2182.50 would require its retest if a sudden downdraft were to develop.
The lateness of actually probing above the 2180.00 bias-up signal undermines its sponsorship. It’s not weak-handed, but it’s necessarily.very strong-handed either. A steady, relentless extended rally isn’t likely.
Friday’s new trend high close still requires an eventual higher close. There’s no assurance of that being today. There’s also nothing preventing it. But today’s session will need to become choppy — reversing back down temporarily and then recovering before the close — for a fresh high close not to have broken sharply higher.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Not much new developed overnight except for the very recent, very shallow break higher adding a couple of ticks up to 2179.00. Equally significant is its reaction back down under the earlier 2176.50 highs. Post-open deterioration could develop quickly, and should develop quickly if yesterday’s decline is extending down this morning to 2171.00 and 2166.00. Otherwise, probing aggressively above 2180.00 is still the minimum requirement to suggest a probe of new highs underway, first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Still slow.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Sunday night and Monday’s open each probed above Friday’s breakout highs, but the majority of Monday slid back into negative territory. Only shallowly, which prevented meeting the 2171.00 objective below, which was created by rejecting the open’s strength. Meeting the objective below was made difficult by an attraction to the strong open — which had maintained its gap up above all prior highs — and to the 2183.00 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest.
Overnight action’s new info…
No change seems to have occurred to the rock and hard place pressuring price between them. An extremely narrow 2-point range between 2174.50-2176.50 persisted through Europe’s opens. Only within the past hour has price dared to break higher, soaring to 2176.00, less than 2 points higher.
If, then…
Understandably, bouncing only a couple of points overnight doesn’t affect wheher yesterday morning’s 2171.00 objective remains as much in-play, Anyway, time is a more important factor. Not being met the same day makes 1-2 lower attractions likely to be met, too, which are 2166.00 and 2160.00. Timing is also relevant, and not yet extending down out of Tuesday’s open would start to suggest a retest of Sunday night’s 2183.00 high will come first — especially if Tuesday’s open has produced an aggressive bounce. But exiting the open still stuck in this narrow range would suggest nothing, and a lot of it.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2181.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2180.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2176.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2171.75 would be likely to trigger the 2173.50 bias-down signal.