Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Once more unto the wall, dear friends.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning’s rally fulfilled the required retest of Sunday night’s 2183.00 “new Globex trend extreme.” In the process, it created new attraction above it at 2185.50. Its attack was interrupted by the bigger pattern’s influence, which has been abruptly reversing rally efforts. This one was reversed deeply enough to fulfill the afternoon’s 2173.25 bias-down target. Bouncing into the close ended within 1 tick of Friday’s 2177.75 prior high close..
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially pulling back to 2174.50 then awaited Europe’s opens, That triggered a surge which extended up to this morning’s 2181.25 bias-up signal. Its 3-point reaction down is now being recovered almost entirely.
If, then…
Friday’s new trend high close requires there to be another new trend high close..Tuesday’s close AT Friday’s close did not qualify. But it could, in retrospect, by rejecting an intraday fresh high Wednesday, especially if 2185.50.were touched There’s plenty of “unfinished business below” at 2171.00, 2160.00 and lower to attract price down. So, now that it seems the open will be greeted in rally mode, the question is whether the ongoing pattern’s influence remains capable of causing rally efforts to abruptly fail.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2079.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2181.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2183.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2185.75 | 2181.25 |
| …would target | 2190.50 | 2186.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2176.00 | 2171.75 |
| …would target | 2170.50 | 2166.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s 2183.00 new Globex trend extreme required a retest. It was retested Tuesday morning, after triggering bias -up. The 2185.50 bias-up target remains outstanding, because a downdraft triggered bias-down and then fulfilled its 2173.25 target to within 3 ticks. Previously outstanding “unfinished business below” at 2171.00, 2160.00 and lower remains outstanding.
Tuesday’s close AT Friday’s close did not qualify as a new trend high close. A new trend high close is required at some point because the last one was on a Friday. But having closed AT the high close, probing Tuesday’s highs Wednesday and reversing down to close under Tuesday’s lows need not wait before extending down. Sharply.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Another quick rejection.
Morning rally reverses down hard from another new high.
Sunday night’s 2183.00 “new Globex trend extreme” had required being tested intraday. This morning’s late bias-up above 2180.00 got there.
It was pierced by 2 ticks as the bias environment lapsing came into view.
A different sentiment made itself obvious soon after entering the noon hour. Plunging to 2177.50 was consolidated into the afternoon bias environment, which only trended down. Its 2173.25 bias-down target was effectively met to within 2 ticks at the low.
I had warned during the rally to be aware of the vulnerability to a downdraft like this. The open’s rally was both light and late, and the bigger picture remains vulnerable to rejecting rally efforts.
Done earlier, the downdraft would have likely recovered to produce the outstanding new high close. It’s not too late for that, and it’s still possible, but it’s not as likely.
If the final hour isn’t at least firming to a new high close, then it will be vulnerable to extending the pullback. There’s still plenty to to below, like test 2171.00 and lower.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrowly ranging session tried resolving up soon after Tuesday’s open. But the setup’s first break was likely to be false, and testing 1.1140 resistance will signal momentum reversing back down under 1.1105.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down again Tuesday attacked Sunday night’s lows at 1336.00 before bouncing back into positive territory at 1348.50. Back under 1341.00 would resume the decline to produce one more lower close before a rally can be credible.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s 19.50 low was attacked at Tuesday’s opening gap down, and then reversed quickly to only fluctuate around unchanged. The gap down will want to be retested before a durable rally attempt could be credible.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not yet exploiting recoveries from probing fresh lows Sunday night and pre-open Monday, the delay could be considered pessimism, and therefore potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. But only for so long. Tuesday exploited that potential sooner, rather than later, breaking through 171-22 and extending to test 172-26 resistance.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s resistance test at 43.35 had reacted down a little into the close, and then a little lower overnight to 42.50. Firming into Tuesday’s open was retraced back to overnight lows. The reversal should become obvious with little delay (API is post-close Tuesday and EIA is Wednesday morning), or else closing above 43.35 would extend the detour up higher.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s break back under 2.80 extended Monday to gap down and test last week’s 2.72 low. The close narrowly failed to recover 2.77, which Tuesday’s open exploited by gapping down to last week’s lows then attacking last month’s lows down to 2.62. That will have to recover from probing lower in order to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.