Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s break higher was suspicious, so Wednesday’s gap down was appropriate. The gap back down to Monday’s 1.1185 close was filled, and closing back under it would signal the corrective bounce had ended.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Attacking the 1375.50 target Tuesday was reversed intraday Wednesday down to 1360.60, attacking the gap back down to Monday’s close. Retesting Wednesday’s high is now likely to hold, bu9t a deeper pullback first should be only temporary
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down Wednesday erased Both Monday and Tuesday’s gains, but did not reverse the trend down, so that 21.15 remains in-play.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s recovery into the 172-26/173-04 range was retraced Wednesday back down to the original 171-22 buy signal that was also tested at Tuesday’s open. Closing under it would suggest a deeper pullback underway, but that’s otherwise premature.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s bounce retested the 40.80 bounce limit tested Tuesday. Closing above 41.20 could invalidate the decline’s momentum, which otherwise remains intact and targeting 36.60.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s close under the 2.77 pullback limit was rejected by gapping up above it Wednesday, and then extending back above 2.80. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength, and a favorable reaction would likely fill the gap back up to 2.98 before extending even higher.
Mid-day Update… Only eking higher.
Higher and higher highs, but lacking velocity.
The morning’s high touched its 2155.50 bias-up signal. Being a no-bias environment, it was required to define the range’s upper-end. Coming after 10:30, nothing was required of Its reaction. And it did nothing, holding 2151.25 as support.
Similarly, the afternoon bias environment 2156.25 bias-up signal has been touched. Nothing is required of its reaction, either. But back under 2153.00 and 2151.00 would be likely to attack or test 2148.00. Below there would still target yesterday’s 2141.50 low.
The downleg signaled at Monday’s open is a little off-track. Probing lower this morning and then recovering this afternoon was likely. Not probing lower this morning doesn’t prevent this afternoon from rallying anyway, it’s just less likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 4, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, and high-profile. But nothing on it has a reliable track record for influencing price action. That can create a vacuum, which then raises the influence of any report that surprises. The two likelier candidates are jobs related.
Rob Kaplan Speaks
6:15 AM ET
*Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2161.75 | 2156.25 |
| …would target | 2166.25 | 2161.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2153.25 | 2148.00 |
| …would target | 2148.50 | 2143.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Re-stretching the rubber band.
Overnight dip recovered.
2150.50-2151.25 defined the open. And the open defined the peak of the bounce off the 2145.25 overnight low. Despite immediately reversing back down toward the overnight low, only 2147.00 support was touched, 1 tick above this morning’s 2146.75 bias-down signal.
2147.00-2148.00 is relevant support. It was the room for noise under 2153.50‘s retest. That support is now chipped away in case it’s retested today.
Meanwhile, au contraire.
2147.00‘s reaction recovered to fresh post-open highs at 2153.00. That eked higher to attack the 2155.50 bias-up signal, which was touched only now. Bias-up didn’t trigger, and can’t. But no-bias trending can still probe it up to 2158.00 while still being likely to reverse down.
Back under 2151.25 would signal that reversal down underway already. Other than potential support at 2149.25, any lower should extend down aggressively to retest yesterday’s 2141.25 low