Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight dip hasn’t recovered, but its bounce from 2145.25 improved a little to touch 2151.00. A retest of yesterday’s 2141.50 low remains likely, and likely to be probed by several points. Probing above last night’s highs to test or attack the 2155.50 bias-up signal is possible first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Proving solid ground,
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s close had recovered from its 2141.50 low back up to Thursday’s 2153.50 low. That was still well under Monday’s 2165.00 close. The requirement to test Thursday’s low was neutralized, and now oversold RSIs at 2141.50 require a retest..
Overnight action’s new info…
Trending down shallowly overnight has nevertheless been relentless. Selling accelerated briefly as Europe’s opens triggered a 6-point slide to 2145.25. That has since firmed to attack 2150.00.
If, then…
Closing at Thursday’s 2153.50 low Tuesday suggests the current downleg is only temporary. Closing above Thursday’s low could have suggested the downleg is done. Instead, a retest of Tuesday’s 2141.50 low is likely, especially if Wednesday’s open doesn’t gap up. Entering the noon hour under Tuesday’s low would suggest a much deeper downleg underway.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2142.50 would be likely to trigger the 2146.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2150.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2161.50 | 2155.50 |
| …would target | 2166.75 | 2160.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2156.75 | 2146.75 |
| …would target | 2147.00 | 2141.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s close was testing Thursday’s 2153.50 low. Remember Thursday’s low? Its test became required after Friday’s probe above Thursday’s highs, despite Thursday’s rally not having gained traction. Retracing Thursday’s rally was the consequence to probing above it prematurely, and now that consequence is neutralized.
Anyway, Thursday’s low has held its test through the close. Its test wasn’t rejected, which would have required closing back above another relevant level. But a lot of extra selling pressure was expended down to 2141.50, and absorbed.
Retesting 2141.50 through Wednesday morning can’t be dismissed, especially with oversold RSIs there requiring it eventually — and especially if not already rallying pre-open. But maintaining a gap up could instead become focused on retesting Sunday night’s 2177.75 high before resuming a much larger decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Ahead of schedule?
Extra selling pressure may have stretched the rubber band.
While retesting 2153.50 was able to include 2147.00-2148.00, its test extended down to 2141.50 coming out of the noon hour.
That extra selling pressure would be bearish, if the extra break were maintained. And it may yet be. But the bias environment bounced up to 2151.50.
The bounce gained no traction. The bias environment exit was still within the noon hour’s range, and the final hour’s entry dipping back into the bias environment’s range. But a squeeze into the close is still possible if the 3:10-3:20 window were to probe higher. That’s not looking good.
Back under 2147.00-2148.00 could resume the decline to test the low’s oversold RSIs, and probably also to trend down into tomorrow’s open. There’s otherwise no requirement to resolve in either direction, and a likelihood to at least test today’s lows before being able to recover.