Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s inside day resolved by gapping up Tuesday above Thursday’s high. Since that had held a test of prior highs, at least a corrective dip to fill the gap and test “lower prior highs” back down to 1.1185-1.1200 is likely regardless of the ultimate resolution.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having extended higher Monday despite Friday already fulfilling the minimum required third higher close, the uptrend was signaled to be intact. Tuesday’s gap up extended sharply higher intraday to attack the next higher objective at 1375.50 to within 1.50, so reacting down if only to correct has become more likely.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday confirmed that Monday’s retest of prior highs and closing higher had resumed the rally, still targeting at least a retest of the Brexit reaction’s 21.15 high.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 172-26/173-04 pullback limit was broken sharply overnight to gap down Tuesday back at the rally’s original 171-22 buy signal. Its reaction up pierced back above 173-00 momentarily. Closing above it Wednesday would suggest the pullback has ended.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
No fresh low overnight didn’t make the decline any less likely to extend lower, which it did Tuesday. Fresh lows attacking 39.15 extended nearer to this leg’s 36.60 target. Now bounces must hold 40.80 to maintain the decline’s momentum.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight probed the 2.77-2.80 pullback limit by a couple of cents. The reaction must still recover 2.80 to suggest the pullback has ended, and that 2.98 is in-play.
Mid-day Update… Gravy.
Extended decline is neutralizing many attractions.
Prior to today, the only required downside was a retest of Thursday’s 2153.50 low. The next lower objective under it was 2147.00-2148.00 This morning’s bias environment tested 2145.00, and the noon hour’s exit touched 2141.50.
The last two lows weren’t required to be tested. But selling pressure has been expended to test them, anyway. A clue to sellers becoming expended is this afternoon’s bias-down that was invalidated — triggering its 2143.50 signal by only 1 tick, and recovering back above it through 1:30.
Exiting the bias environment back above 2147.00-2148.00 would suggest that selling pressure is satisfied. Back above 2151.25 would start signaling momentum is reversing up. Meanwhile, the trend remains down, and fresh lows would next target the 2137.00 area.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 3, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is busy, and somewhat high-profile. But the only reliably influential econ report is the ADP number, and its reaction helps to fine-tune market sentiment ahead of Friday’s monthly payrolls.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2157.25 | 2151.25 |
| …would target | 2163.25 | 2157.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2149.50 | 2143.50 |
| …would target | 2143.25 | 2137.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sentiment shifty.
Monday morning’s sentiment shift setup still playing-out.
SPECIAL NOTE: MY DEVELOPER IS TESTING INDIVIDUAL USER ACCOUNTS TO RESOLVE THE CHARTROOM LOGIN ISSUE. THIS MIGHT REQUIRE THAT YOU RE-SET YOUR PASSWORD, AGAIN… ONE WAY, OR ANOTHER, THIS ISSUE WILL BE RESOLVED BY TODAY’S CLOSE. THANK YOU FOR BEING PATIENT!
A Symmetrical Triangle had formed pre-open. The open was greeted at its 2162.00 upper-end. A 2-point blip-down was reversed immediately into a 2-point blip-up to 2164.00. That last blip was the Triangle’s 61.8% extension. And it held.
Even faster than the blip-up, fresh lows were being probed down to 2158.00 A bigger break lower has extended down to 2150.00.
The 2154.25 bias-down target had been probed, but was still being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. That doesn’t change this being a bias-down environment. And the next lower objective would be 2147.00-2148.00.
Oversold RSIs at 2150.00 require its retest. They are higher oversolds, so an interim bounce retesting the 2154.25 bias-down target is possible. This morning’s trend meanwhile remains down.
Yesterday’s open had isolated the overnight probe of fresh highs, signaling a sentiment shift. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the 2177.75 overnight high. Resolving downside attractions so quickly does make it difficult to attract substantial sponsorship. I’m not convinced this downturn is durable.