Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2945.00 | 2946.75 |
| …would target | 2952.50 | 2954.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2934.75 | 2936.50 |
| …would target | 2927.75 | 2929.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… LATE BIAS-UP.
Up in the absence of down.
The 2939.00 earlier Globex low had been threatened overnight by 5 ticks. But the 2942.00 open wasn’t threatening it, at all. Breaking under 2939.00 through the open was necessary for the Globex-flip setup.
If the setup wasn’t even threatened at the open, then it couldn’t be rejected. Its consequence couldn’t be as bullish as it would have been bearish. So, Globex-flip is irrelevant this morning.
That doesn’t prevent rallying anyway. So long as sellers weren’t retaking control, there was an attraction to higher highs. They didn’t require a retest, but that didn’t prevent rallying anyway, either.
The open surged to fresh highs attacking 2948.00. Reacting down to 2941.00 didn’t prevent triggering late bias-up above 2944.50. Now 2948.00 is being attacked again, as the 2950.50 bias-up target is in-play.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Too little, too late?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s narrow sideways range had broken through its 2926.50 upper-end to 2932.00 in reaction to GDP. Having originated 60-90 minutes pre-open, the breakout was reversed back down through the open to the overnight range’s lower-end at the 2919.50 bias-down targte. The reversal attempt failed, likely marginalizing sellers for the day. Separately, holding tests of both bias-down parameters put into play offsetting tests of the 2934.00 and 2940.75 bias-up parameters. They weren’t required to be met because the rejection was late, but their tests were fulfilled anyway. Also met was “unfinished business” from prior sessions at 2942.00 and 2942.75 by Friday’s last-minute surge to 2942.75. The surge came too late for its new high close to create new unfinished business.
Overnight action’s new info…
A painstakingly narrow 2940.50-2943.00 range developed well through midnight before showing any signs of life. It was a brief surge to 2944.75, and then a reaction down to 2941.25. Another surge to higher highs attacked 2947.00, but no less brief, as its reaction down fell to lower lows at 2940.00. And now a consolidation there is probing lower. Now the 2939.35 earlier Globex low is being probed as support. Each of the overnight probes to higher highs was a singular surge, and each reacted back down under Friday’s high. So, neither qualifies as a “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require intraday retest.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
New trend highs overnight that don’t qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme” does not prevent their intraday retest, but it’s not required. No other “unfinished business” above is outstanding, but that doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway. Borrowing (and slightly twisting) Newton’s first law, the uptrend remains intact until a reversal setup appears. And then that setup must make impact. A bearish Globex-flip setup is trying to form, as an overnight probe above the prior 2942.75 intraday high has been reversed to probe under the 2939.35 earlier Globex low. Meanwhile, be aware that Friday-Monday setups are less reliable, and also breaking under the 2935.75 last relative low would be helpful confirmation. If fully formed but not triggered, the setup’s consequence should be as bullish as it could have been bearish, which means influencing the morning’s trend.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2946.50 would be likely to trigger the 2944.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2940.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2940.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2936.50 bias-down signal.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/27/19) …Eke.
The week got off to a slow start, albeit absorbing a gap down coming out of the weekend. Tuesday morning’s rally was also the week’s rally, representing its only uptrend. Everything that followed was hesitation, backing-and-filling, and retracing. Until one hour before Friday’s close, which rallied again.
This week’s Review discusses how we knew from Tuesday’s surge and then from subsequent price action that fresh highs were still coming. We also discuss how that subsequent price action already defines any further probe of fresh highs, and what Friday’s new trend high close means, and doesn’t mean.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMZN, GOOGL, GE, TSLA, XLNX, BIIB
transcript
—————– (04/27/2019 09:32) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
David B: Good Morning
—————– (04/27/2019 09:57) —————–
Adam: Is the distribution from a few weeks ago still relevant for a bigger picture top forming?
—————– (04/27/2019 10:00) —————–
David B: was that distribution pattern since the market has rallied were those strong hands wrong?
—————– (04/27/2019 10:11) —————–
David B: GOOGL,GE
—————– (04/27/2019 10:16) —————–
David B: TSLA
David B: was 250 a key level broken in resuming the downtrend?
—————– (04/27/2019 10:23) —————–
David B: XLNK
David B: is this similiar like biogen
—————– (04/27/2019 10:32) —————–
David B: yes
—————– (04/27/2019 10:33) —————–
David B: its was the right stock
David B: do you see a melt up?
David B: for the market
David B: good employment report?
—————– (04/27/2019 10:35) —————–
David B: that is what i’m talking about multiple sessions
—————– (04/27/2019 10:37) —————–
David B: Thanks
Bill G: thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!