Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2179.00 | 2173.50 |
| …would target | 2185.00 | 2179.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2165.50 | 2160.00 |
| …would target | 2159.75 | 2154.25 |
| Signal status:NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s probe above Thursday’s highs must fail. Thursday’s rally had gained no traction for its effort, and only gapping up above it would have been durable.
Friday Factors inhibited trending back down. Probing a fresh high Friday afternoon would have all but required snapping back down already.
Probing fresh highs Monday can’t be discounted, but would be no different than if done Friday afternoon. Except that the consequence for weak-handed buying is now greater. — not only retracing back into Thursday’s range, but retracing its lows.
Meanwhile, despite probing fresh intraday highs in the afternoon, a Friday breakout was avoided. Not for lack of proximity, as the entire afternoon was there. But the cash session close was under prior highs, so no additional higher close is required.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us for Saturday Review to game out possible open’s and their resolutions. We’ll also review any stock chart requests from subscribers. Log-in by 9:30 am ET to the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s second consecutive higher close above recent prior highs has already produced its required third higher close with Friday’s gap up that extended higher through the morning to 1.1219. Back under 1.1150 would signal the rally had ended.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday trended up from the open, retracing Thursday’s post-open session-long retracement from 1344.00, and extending to test 1351.50. This fulfills the minimum requirement for at least a third higher close after Tuesday’s confirmed breakout. Pullbacks holding 1342.50 allow the rally to extend to 1365.00 and potentially also to 1386.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s post-open session-long retracement wasn’t rejected Friday as price action only fluctuated choppily in positive territory. This didn’t qualify for fulfilling the minimum requirement of at least a third higher close, let alone the retest of Brexit’s 21.15 reaction peak.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having produced the required third higher close Thursday from Tuesday’s confirmed breakout at 171-22, closing above 173-04‘s buy signal needed confirmation Friday from its own second consecutive higher close — which was likely for having probed 1 point above it into the afternoon.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight tested 40.55 before bouncing Friday to test 41.65 as resistance, still having room up to 42.25-42.50 for maintaining this leg’s 36.60 objective.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s strong reaction to its EIA report was extended only slightly higher Friday to test 2.92, but still closed positive to confirm that at least a third eventual higher close is now required. The gap back up to the 2.98 high close is an attraction, but its test is likely to be exceeded..
Mid-day Update… Untenable.
Fresh intraday highs, with the wrong sponsorship.
This morning’s bias environment tested the 2169.00 bias-up signal. The noon hour was entered above it. Invalidating the late bias-down signal is complete.
The signal was already suspect for still being within 1 tick of 2160.75 at 10:30. Suspicions grew by quickly recovering 2160.75, and were confirmed by extending relentlessly to a fresh high above 2165.00. Recovering the offsetting signal before fully exiting the bias environment makes it official.
Higher highs during the noon hour touched 2171.75. That stopped 3 ticks pessimistically short of the prior overnight high, so already reacting down is suspicious. An inflection point at 2166.75 has been holding, and the dip was isolated to the noon hour. The 2164.00 bias-down signal is still 3-4 points lower.
Overbought RSIs at the high don’t require a retest, but back above 2169.25 would target fresh highs anyway. Fresh highs are still vulnerable to failure this afternoon.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar is busier than usual. More so, one or two of its reports are reliable for influencing price action — especially the ISM number.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET