Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2176.75 | 2171.25 |
| …would target | 2181.75 | 2176.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2169.50 | 2164.00 |
| …would target | 2164.50 | 2159.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Once more for the dipper.
Post-open drop is recovered.
The opening bar touched the 2160.75 bias-down signal and snapped up to 2164.75. Consolidating there eventually dipped back under the open, and back down to the 2157.50 overnight low.
The dip was recovered to 2161.50, for long enough to invoke the grace period at 10:15. At 10:30, the 2160.75 bias-down signal was being attacked to within 1 tick. But still under it.
A single tick makes it not optimal, but still a late bias-down. Not being optimal, the signal is immediately vulnerable. But only immediately — not for long, and for only one rejection attempt.
In fact, a buy signal quickly triggered back above 2161.50. Back under the 2160.75 bias-down signal at any time would have rejected the recovery attempt, and confirmed the bias-down. But its validity was confirmed by trending up relentlessly to a fresh post-open high above 2165.00.
I’m treating this as a noN-bias environment. And now 2168.00 is being tested. Back under 2164.75 would target at least an attack on the 2160.75 bias-down signal.
Treating this morning as a noN-bias environment allows trending up instead, and even probing new highs. But nothing changes that yesterday afternoon’s rally gained no traction. So, probing new highs this morning would be doomed to failure this afternoon.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The choppy overnight range continued narrowing into 2161.50, and then spiked down to attack the 2157.50 low. Its reaction was almost as quick, bouncing back up to and through 2161.50 by at least 1 point. Triggering the 2160.75 bias-down signal would get every benefit of the doubt for trending down this morning. Otherwise, at least gravitating back up to the 2168.00-2169.00 area is likely
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Lots of chop, little drop.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Rallying overnight up to 2168.50 didn’t ensure any higher highs, especially since the 2168.00-2169.00 area has an almost daily pattern of rejecting rallies. Thursday opened flat and then fell further down to 2153.50. A 9-point bounce was retraced entirely before the morning ended. But the next bounce extended into the final hour, up to 2167.50. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high, but no other traction was gained..
Overnight action’s new info…
.Reaction to post-close earnings from AMZN and GOOG was isolated to NQs. ES was more inhibited by the coming BOJ policy statement. Flat-to-lower ranging blipped-up to 2168.00 on a fat-fingered Yen trade, and its cover triggered a 10-point spike down to 2157.50. Volatility persisted, albeit narrowing the range centered around 2161.50
If, then…
Greeting Friday’s open at or above 2168.00-2169.00 remains in touch, if not actually in-play. Friday Factors could enable it being the first among 4-5 prior instances in the past week to extend high. Probing Sunday night’s highs up to 2175.50 would still be vulnerable to reversing back down, especially since Thursday’s rally didn’t gain traction. Not gapping up could still probe fresh highs, and would be more vulnerable to failure. The only bearish path must gap down. We’ll be monitoring for a new trend high close, which has predictive value on Fridays..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2158.0 would be likely to trigger the 2160.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2168.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2171.25 would be like to trigger the 2169.00 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2174.50 | 2169.00 |
| …would target | 2181.00 | 2175.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2166.25 | 2160.75 |
| …would target | 2161.00 | 2155.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.