Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did Thursday recover from 2153.50 to 2167.50 in anticipation of favorable earnings surprises after the close from AMZN and GOOG? Or, was the recovery inhibited by the earnings timing? Probing 5 points above the morning’s high still stopped 1 point short of the 2168.50 overnight high. Pessimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Greeting Friday’s open at or above 2168.00-2169.00 wouldn’t be a first. There are 4-5 prior instances in the past week. Extending above it would be a second. Sunday night did it. But still being in proximity of fresh highs at 2175.50 still makes its test the likelier resolution.
Thursday’s rally didn’t gain traction, so extending higher Friday morning probably depends on gapping up. Assuming fresh highs are even probed (for a change), we’ll be looking at the close for a new trend high, or not. It has special meaning on Fridays.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Ready for new highs (still)?
Another afternoon rally, and postured for traction.
This afternoon’s no-bias environment probed above its 2161.00 bias-up signal to 2163.00. And then hovered there until the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30.
The bias-up signal held as support, at least to within 2 ticks at the relevant 2161.50 level. So, I’m not regarding the probe as “no-bias trending.” Neither is the subsequent probe, which is now testing 2165.00.
Meanwhile, the bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high. The final hour wasn’t entered any higher, but trending to fresh afternoon highs through the 3:10-3:20 window would signal the rally is gaining traction.
Back under 2161.00 at any time — especially through 3:10-3:20 — would signal another downdraft underway. Otherwise, some bullish resolution remains likely near-term, but that may be inhibited by post-close earnings due from AMZN and GOOG, or tonight’s BOJ disappointment..
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s FOMC news came after intraday weakness had filled the gap back down to Friday’s 1.0985 close. Its reaction spiked up above multi-session highs, and gapped up Thursday to test the most recent trendline break at 1.1130. Extending above 1.1145 would signal a bigger rally underway, but back under 1.1045 would signal the corrective bounce had ended already.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting favorably to Wednesday’s FOMC news had already extended well above the 1325.00 and 1329.50 buy signals. Firming further overnight probed higher Thursday to 1344.50. Its post-open reaction trended back down to attack the 1329.50 pullback limit, but any second consecutive higher close confirms the the recovery’s momentum remains intact.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already reacting favorably to Wednesday’s FOMC news, higher highs overnight further extended the break above the 19.75-19.85 buy signal to pierce the 20.55 2-week old high. Post-open action trended back down, needing only a second consecutive higher close to confirm the breakout’s momentum remains intact.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s second consecutive close above the 171-22 buy signal extended higher overnight to test the next pattern’s 173-04 signal whose recovery confirms 176-10 is in-play.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trending down to fresh lows Thursday helps to confirm the pattern’s next objective of 36.60 is in-play Bounces should now hold 42.25-42.50..
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although not greeting Thursday’s EIA from a position of strength, at least all available selling pressure had been expended down to 2.65 without gaining any traction for the effort, i.e. breakout. The report’s reaction was immediate, surging to test 2.80-2.85 whose recovery through the close signals a new rally leg underway.
Mid-day Update… Quicksand? Should be slowsand.
Still stuck at the lows.
Dropping during the opening 15 minutes had probed well under 2158.00-2159.00. That area’s quicksand is irrelevant if its probe is isolated to a relevant timing window. And it was — reacting up sharply from 2154.00 to attack 2163.00.
But it was tested again, entering the bias environment back under 2158.00. And there has been nothing quick about it. Attacking this morning’s 2153.25 bias-down signal to within 1 tick did produce a bounce back up to 2158.00-2159.00. But that reacted down.
Now that reaction down is has recovered to probe above 2158.00-2159.00, which starts to suggest the quicksand is being left behind. It’s too late to trigger bias-up, so exiting the bias environment in rally mode is the next bullish scenario.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 29, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s GDP is high-profile, but tends not to influence price action. When it does, the same reaction is often duplicated by the session’s subsequent reports. The post-open PMI is released privately to its institutional subscribers, and any reaction is also likely to be duplicated when released publicly.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Rob Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET