Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday afternoon’s recovery from the FOMC reaction rallied nearly 15 points to attack 2167.00. That’s after initially plunging from 2160.00 to 2152.00.The selling may seem repudiated, but Wednesday’s close dipped back down to 2160.00.
FOMC’s non-bearish news is out, and its relief rally has elapsed. The rally is back on its own. Proximity to the highs, and to retest 2171.25 up to 2175.50, makes another downleg unlikely to extend. But being unlikely to extend doesn’t prevent another downleg from developing or from extending.
Probing fresh highs first would still be vulnerable to a more durable reaction down. But we’ll need to see how those highs develop before having any confidence in the peak.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… The little engine that could.
FOMC reaction absorbed, not yet reversed.
This afternoon’s 2156.00 bias-down signal triggered noN-bias. That wasn’t the strongest position to greet the FOMC statement. It wasn’t the weakest either. A knee-jerk reaction down to 2152.00 was retraced entirely to 2160.00.
Consolidating there eventually broke higher for 2-3 minutes to attack 2165.00, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour highs. The next consolidation just blipped up to pierce 2165.00 momentarily, 2-3 minutes too late to enter the noon hour above the bias environment high.
The recovery could still extend today, and probably probe this morning’s highs. But its durability would depend on gaining traction by trending up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window now underway.
This is not when the rally should restrain optimism. Not unless it intends only to probe fresh highs shallowly and briefly before reversing down.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Another narrowly ranging session Wednesday reacted down on Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement, filling the gap back to Friday’s 1.0985 close. Closing any lower would resume the decline.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Quickly recovering 1325.00 Wednesday is in-line with the recent pattern bottoming, but still needs to close above 1329.50 to confirm momentum reversing up.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging through 19.75-19.85 to attack 20.20 now needs a second consecutive higher close Thursday to confirm the decline has been reversed to probe fresh highs.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s close above the 171-22 buy signal was still overlapping it, but Wednesday morning probed it to its highest levels attacking 173-00.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The reaction to Wednesday’s EIA report triggered fresh lows testing 41.70, now targeting 36.60 so long as 43.80 isn’t recovered.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow ranging sideways Wednesday gradually slipped back down to the 2.65 lows, which is not greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength. But an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up can be maintained.
Mid-day Update… Sold out.
Holding support.
This afternoon’s 2156.00 bias-down signal was still being tested at both 1:20 and 1:30 to trigger noN-bias. Not a bias-down or no-bias. Greeting the 2:00 FOMC statement from above 2159.00 would start to be a position of strength. But nothing prevents a knee-jerk reaction in either direction, or for ultimately ending down.
But there is no unfinished business today above or below. The environment tends to be volatile, so be cautious with positions in this environment.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 28, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Jobless Claims no longer has a track record for influencing price action. But it is high-profile, and it’s the morning’s only high-profile item, so a surprise number would likely make an impact.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET