Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2171.75 | 2166.00 |
| …would target | 2176.75 | 2171.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2161.50 | 2156.00 |
| …would target | 2156.25 | 2150.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… We’ve got to stop rejecting like this.
Same level’s test launches the same reaction down.
The pattern plays out again — early test of the 2168.00 area, big reaction down. It’s playing out faster and faster. Will its next recovery stage play out faster, too?
Restrained optimism of the overnight flat-to-higher ranging had at least kept the door open to a morning rally. But there was no print above the first minute’s high. And the first minute’s high only touched the 2169.25 overnight high, testing the 2169.00 bias-up signal. Holding its test through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2158.00 bias-down signal. Which has already been met to within 1 tick.
Restrained optimism, meet impatient selling. Potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Meanwhile, quite a bit of negative sentiment has been expressed already before this afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Defensive posturing? Isn’t the Fed about to announce no rate hike again?
If the past week’s pattern is actually speeding up, then its recovery leg won’t wait until tomorrow. It might not wait for the afternoon’s news. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the low require a retest, although not necessarily before a recovery leg.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Not much reaction to this morning’s Durable Goods report. So, the overnight flat-to-higher ranging and firming is maintaining a restrained optimism. The open is being greeted back at or above yesterday’s morning’s peak, testing critical resistance at 2168.00-2169.00. Almost any post-open strength would be credible for extending to new highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Ready for new highs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Surging 5 points immediately at Tuesday’s open fulfilled the bullish scenario, although stronger-handed selling would soon emerge. The 2168.00 peak was soon reversed, falling 14 points through the morning to 2154.00 — of which 10 points was a plunge. Noon hour and afternoon recovery attempts each peaked at 2164.00. No traction was gained, and the close fluctuated around unchanged.
Overnight action’s new info…
Perhaps anxiousness ahead of AAPL’s post-close earnings was inhibiting Tuesday’s recovery attempts. Its post-close reaction broke immediately 2 points above the afternoon highs to 2166.00. And Tuesday morning’s high was probed overnight by more than 1 point to test 2169.00..
If, then…
Tuesday’s close backed off from the highs, but only a little. And that was after expending plenty of selling pressure intraday, for a second consecutive session. Fresh intraday highs at 2171.25 and 2175.50 are still on my radar. Reaction to Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement is usually volatile, but the morning’s action before it tends either to be inhibited or else to trend. Still, any post-open weakness should barely touch or probe back under yesterday afternoon’s 2164.00 “lower prior highs” to keep new session highs likely for today.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2171.25 would be likely to trigger the 2169.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2164.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2156.00 would be likely to trigger the 2158.00 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2174.75 | 2169.00 |
| …would target | 2181.25 | 2175.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2163.75 | 2158.00 |
| …would target | 2158.25 | 2152.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.