Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Off its good start.
Opening surge only threatens bias-up.
“Unleashing the pent-up buying pressure at the open should surge through the 2165.00 overnight highs if this morning intends to recover.” 
That summarized what I had noted during the pre-open Tour, that the bullish template would surge quickly.
A post-open dip to 2162.75 and a break above 2164.75 each helped to confirm momentum was extending higher. Ultimately, 2168.00 was touched.
The open did exactly that, and then it didn’t. Bias-up didn’t trigger, despite probing 2 points above its 2166.00 signal. Instead, this is a no-bias environment. And having held a test of the 2157.75 bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the bias-down signal is in-play.
No-bias trending would probe above the bias-up signal during a no-bias environment, and then fail. The 2171.25 and 2175.50 attractions above don’t require testing, but they’re nearby. Back above 2166.50 would be credible for no-bias trending to probe fresh highs. Before failing.
Meanwhile, an offsetting test of the 2158.00 bias-down signal is in-play. Its test is likely underway back under 2164.25 (being tested now). Overbought RSIs at the high don’t require a retest, having developed during the open, regardless of their retest being likely at some point.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging is attacking yesterday’s 2163.00 cash session close. Repeatedly attacking it, each time stopping pessimistically short of actually touching it. That’s potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Unleashing the pent-up buying pressure at the open should surge through the 2165.00 overnight highs if this morning intends to recover. Otherwise, almost any delay or detour could test the 2156.00-2158.00 area, and begin a deeper decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Still slopping around.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The week began by falling back into the same range as last Tuesday’s horrible session. The template behaved the same way this week, with Its quicksand keeping price attracted to 2156.00-2158.00 for much of the day. Also similar was a last-minute rally up to 2163.50 that retraced more of the open’s drop from 2166.00-2168.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
A pullback to 2158.50 was recovered to a fresh high at 2165.00. Reacting down through Europe’s opens has extended back to the 2158.50 low. Price is still consolidating under unchanged levels.
If, then…
There is now no bullish reason to revisit Monday’s 2156.00-2158.00 lows. Dipping more than just momentarily would likely gain sponsorship and traction to break under last week’s lows on the way to a much deeper level. Meanwhile, almost any opening strength Tuesday should be likely to probe fresh intraday highs, retesting Sunday night’s highs up to 2171.25 and 2175.50.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2161.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2166.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2168.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2155.50 would be likely to trigger the 2157.75 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2171.75 | 2166.00 |
| …would target | 2176.75 | 2171.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2163.50 | 2157.75 |
| …would target | 2056.25 | 2150.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The week began by falling back into the same range as last Tuesday’s horrible session. The template behaved the same way this week, with Its quicksand keeping price down for much of the day, and a last-minute recovery lifting out of the range.
There is now no bullish reason to revisit Monday’s 2156.00-2158.00 lows. Probing lower would intend also to break under last week’s lows on the way to a much deeper level.
Almost any initial strength Tuesday would be likely to probe fresh intraday highs, retesting Sunday night’s highs up to 2171.25 and 2175.50. They don’t require intraday retest, but their retest is likely, anyway.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.