Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Sticking.
Bouncing off lows hasn’t extended.
This morning’s low had touched the 2056.00 room to probe under the 2058.00 bias-down target. The noon hour’s low had touched this afternoon’s 2055.75 bias-down signal. The no-bias environment attacked its 2161.50 bias-up signal to within 1 tick.
No trending since this morning. Just more of that quicksand.
Last Tuesday’s difficulty with this area wasn’t resolved until a last-minute surge. Don’t be surprised by something similar today, but also don’t rely on it. Its direction isn’t even predictable, since the bias environment exit and final hour entry didn’t gain traction.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s break lower from a multi-session range wasn’t immediately confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Monday. So long as 1.1033 holds as resistance, this alternating 2-day sequence might be the beginning of another alternating 4-day sequence, as the 1.0945 prior low’s retest remains outstanding.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s gap down wasn’t rejected by the close, nor by gapping up Monday. Gapping down instead was extended intraday to retest last week’s lows, and still reversed up to attack positive territory into the noon hour. Stopping pessimistically short of touching Friday’s close is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday and probing lower intraday didn’t prevent reversing up into positive territory before noon. Just testing 18.75 now requires closing above 18.85 to signal a bigger recovery underway.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday morning’s probe back above the 171-22 buy signal was extended to at least attack Friday’s 172-09 test of it, which had not been maintained into the weekend.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s weak bounce from the decline’s 43.80 target was rejected easily Monday by gapping back down and probing fresh lows under 43.00. Closing back above 43.80 would be the first stop to suggesting a bottom may be forming.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s flat open and intraday dip down to 2.73 didn’t immediately exploit Friday’s surge up to the 2.80 buy signal. Its recovery would be bullish, but must still be confirmed above 2.85 for any confidence that a recovery is underway.
Mid-day Update… Scraping bottom?
Lower lows still ranging around morning’s target.
Despite already having met this morning’s 2158.00 bias-down target. oversold RSIs that developed there had required its retest. Its retest had room down to 2156.00. Its retest touched 2156.00 before the morning’s bias environment lapsed.
Narrow noon hour ranging touched this afternoon’s 2155.75 bias-down signal. It held, and reacted up to 2159,25. But the noon hour lapsed back within its 2156.00-2158.00 range.
The 2155.75 bias-down signal didn’t trigger. This is a no-bias environment, with room for bouncing up to its 2161.50 bias-up signal. An afternoon recovery back to overnight highs isn’t assured, but would be difficult to start from any lower any later.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 26, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only one of Tuesday’s reports has a track record for influencing price action. But the two housing sector reports offer an opportunity for contradictory numbers, or for each confirming a surprise.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2167.50 | 2161.50 |
| …would target | 2173.50 | 2167.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2161.50 | 2155.75 |
| …would target | 2156.50 | 2150.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.