Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2171.50 | 2165.50 |
| …would target | 2177.25 | 2171.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2159.00 | 2153.00 |
| …would target | 2154.00 | 2148.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s breakout from a four-session range was not confirmed Thursday. As was expected for this pattern, the alternative to confirming would be a deep rejection of the breakout. Not just avoiding a positive close, but closing sharply lower.
Equally important is what that means for this pattern. Simply not confirming Wednesday’s breakout would have kept the door open to extending higher anyway. Trying to extend higher after Thursday’s dive would very likely be reversed to fresh lows.
No traction was gained Thursday afternoon, so only gapping open beyond either end of Thursday’s range could resume trending before late-afternoon. Oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2153.50 low may facilitate a gap down. Meanwhile, lower lows overnight could already start recovering from 2152.00 and 2148.00.
Thursday’s unfinished business above at 2171.25 doesn’t prevent a deeper drop from developing. Already firming into Friday’s open, preferably after probing lower lows overnight — just not gapping down — would likely retest 2171.25 before the weekend. And then drop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Either, or.
Lower and lower lows.
Each of today’s timing windows has probed lower. Relentless intraday trending can be reversed, if the bias environment exit retraces the last timing window’s move.
The bias environment began lapses between 2:30-3:00. Recovering from the 2155.75 low to enter the final hour back above 2161.00 would be rewarded by probing fresh session highs.
Meanwhile, the bias environment began lapsing under the noon hour’s low. Entering the final hour under the bias environment’s 2155.75 low would give sellers traction. And the next lower objective would be the 2148.00 area.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 4-day sequence through Wednesday had suggested another fresh low coming Thursday under Wednesday’s 1.1017 low. Surging Thursday up to 1.1085 in reaction to ECB’s policy statement was reversed to fresh lows at 1.1004, still targeting a retest of Brexit’s 1.0945 prior low.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up was retraced enough to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s close before reversing up above the 1325.50 buy signal to test 1330.00, which recovering through the close could complete a bottom..
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing Thursday still needs to recover above 18.75-18.85 to signal momentum is reversing up.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Lower lows Thursday morning finally tested the lower-end of the pullback’s 170-16/171-08 target area. Its fuller test wasn’t required, and it was probed under 170-00, but that allowed lowering the buy signal to 171-22 — which was attacked into the afternoon.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still holding the 46.05 bounce limit overnight (45.25 basis Aug) was reversed by late-morning Thursday to test Wednesday’s 45.00 opening gap, still targeting 43.80 (43.00 basis Aug).
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday morning’s EIA report after testing the 2.65 pullback limit overnight was still a position of weakness, but at least it could be an oversold position of weakness. The news didn’t push price lower, but a recovery hasn’t yet emerged.
Mid-day Update… Millimeters and inches.
Was the upside objective invalidated?
That’s the most important question facing the market today. There was no outstanding higher objective until this morning’s 2164.25 bias-down signal held through 10:15.
It put into play an offsetting test of the 2171.25 bias-up signal.
Was that test Invalidated? Not at 10:30, despite being attacked then. Invalidating it then required exiting the bias environment under the 2159.75 bias-down TARGET. You’ll never guess what a sudden plunge from 2167.50 was attacking through 11:30-noon.
The 2159.75 bias-down target. To within 1 tick.
It’s still being tested now, during the noon hour, while RSIs diverge positively. But that upside objective is looking pretty dubious. No other upside objective, and a big target (2168.00) tested and retested. This market can get very bearish very quickly if that upside objective isn’t valid.
Back above 2163.00 would be the first indication of retesting yesterday’s high. But there’s not much time available to get that done.