Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 22, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is thin again. The morning’s report has no track record for influencing price action. The afternoon report’s impact on Crude Oil is greater than on the market.
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2172.25 | 2166.25 |
| …would target | 2177.25 | 2171.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2165.00 | 2159.00 |
| …would target | 2160.00 | 2154.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not THIS again.
Choppy open is threatening to range narrowly..
Tuesday’s gap down resolved by not resolving, and just chopping around until the final minutes. Tiday’s gap down is shallower, but it’s under yesterday afternoon’s lows, and it hasn’t yet resolved.
Today’s resolution might not end very far from its open. But an intraday probe above yesterday’s high is likely since the 2164.25 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15. An offsetting test of the 2171.25 bias-up signal is in-play.
Today’s resolution might end very far into negative territory. Not confirming yesterday’s breakout by a second consecutive higher close, should instead trend down intraday.
The open has only fluctuated around yesterday afternoon’s 2166.50 lows. That lower-end held while its range attacked 2171.25. Attacking 2175.25 from this level should be no less likely.
\Meanwhile, there is not much of a requirement to probe higher, but that’s the likely scenario so long as sellers don’t gain traction.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Yesterday afternoon’s 2166.50 lower-end is still resisting the 2163.00 pullback limit test’s reaction up. A post-open dip would have room down to 2161.50 while still being likely to recover, and to probe yesterday’s highs — probably also this morning’s 2171.25 bias-up signal. Dipping much deeper for much longer would more likely put the morning on defense.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Holding pattern.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s session was significant, fulfilling several items of “unfinished business above” at 2163.00, 2163.75, and 2168.00. The overnight rally had neutralized the first two. A post-open dip to 2158.50 preceded recovering to neutralize the last objective. It was tested up to 2169.75, which was touched several times. The afternoon’s sideways action down to 2166.50 gained no traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s sideways ranging persisted through Europe’s opens, which barely pierced Wednesday’s high. A dip has tested and retested 2163.00. A bounce is now testing Wednesday afternoon’s 2166.50 lower-end as resistance, with the ECB policy statement just minutes away.
If, then…
A pullback had room down to 2163.00 before suggesting a bigger detour is underway. So, holding the overnight low is important to this morning’s price action. Wednesday’s 2169.75 high can still be probed up to 2171.25 and 2175.50, which is likely so long as bias-down doesn’t trigger. Regardless, today’s close may or may not confirm Wednesday’s breakout, which could create a very predictable intraday pattern Friday..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2172.50 would be likely to trigger the 2171.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2166.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2163.00 would be likely to trigger the 2164.25 bias-down signal.