Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2177.25 | 2171.25 |
| …would target | 2181.50 | 2175.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2170.25 | 2164.25 |
| …would target | 2165.75 | 2159.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s session was significant, fulfilling several items of “?unfinished business above” at 2163.00, 2163.75, and 2168.00.
They can still be probed up to 2171.25 and 2175.00. Meanwhile, a pullback has room down to 2163.00 before suggesting a bigger detour is underway.
Most important is whether Thursday will confirm Wednesday’s breakout, which would essentially entrench the rally and inhibit a counter-trend decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The fourth of a 4-day sequence Wednesday fulfilled its likeliest scenario of not confirming the third day’s break lower. The fourth day’s overnight low formed optimistically short of touching a prior low. This suggests the sequence will repeat again, with another break lower for 1-2 days.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Days of teasing at the 1333.00 buy signal was resolved by gapping down sharply under last Thursday’s 1320.50 lows and attacking 1313.00 intraday. The gap down was neutralized so that closing above 1322.00 can signal that a bottom is forming, and closing above 1330.00 can launch an upleg.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Two days of probing under the 20.05 pullback limit weren’t rejected, and instead gapped down to fresh lows at 19.45-19.60. Back above 19.75-19.85 could trigger an aggressive rally, but there is meanwhile potential for extending down to 18.90-19.00.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
One more dip under 171-08 Wednesday should suffice for this initial downleg to retrace 173-04 and then back up to 176-10 to complete the topping pattern.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows at Wednesday’s open only attacked the 42.65-43.45 target area down to 43.70 before bouncing in reaction to the morning’s EIA report. The gap open requires being retested, and should be probed into the target area.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Wednesday to Friday’s 2.67 low probed lower to attack the 2.65 pullback potential. Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness under all recent prior lows has little room or time for absorbing an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.
Mid-day Update… And?
All upside requirements fulfilled.
The 2168.00 new Globex trend extreme that had printed last week required being retested intraday. Its retest was likely also to touch 2169.00. This morning’s 2169.75 high neutralized the attraction.
Overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the morning’s high required a retest. The noon hour’s dip to 2166.50 was recovered back up to 2169.75, and 3-minute RSI didn’t recover to overbought. The retest is fulfilled.
Oversold RSIs at this morning’s 2158.50 low developed during the open, so they don’t require retest. It’s still an attraction, but not required.
Another influence may soon be relevant:
Today’s new highs are attempting a breakout from a multi-session range. Assuming the breakout is maintained, tomorrow would be the confirmation session — either closing higher to confirm the breakout, or not. Testing the room for noise above 2168.00 to 2175.00 without confirming the breakout would be bearish.
Meanwhile, this afternoon’s retest of this morning’s high will probably visit 2171.25. Back under 2166.25 would signal momentum already reversing down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 21, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This week’s thin econ calendar ends Thursday, which is littered with high-profile and influential reports, beginning with the ECB policy statement and Draghi presser. Philly Fed is the only regional report that actually impacts price action. And although not highlighted, the two housing sector reports offer an opportunity for contradictory numbers, or for each confirming a surprise.
*ECB Policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET