Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Weaving a bullish web.
Open’s dip creates another upside objective.
Tuesday’s open was essentially 2154.50, which was also Friday’s close and Monday’s open. Seems to be a relevant area. Surging up to 2158.00 didn’t lessen its attraction, as a reaction down touched 2153.25.
Another bounce attacked 2158.00 in time to avoid triggering the 2154.00 bias-down signal. An offsetting test of the 2163.00 bias-up signal is in-play.
Despite the upside attraction, a rally isn’t gaining traction. That might be because the 2153.25 low wasn’t fully formed, so recovering will be difficult until at least touching 2153.00.
Fresh highs above 2158.00 would be credible for leaving behind the 2153.25 lows. Otherwise, backing-and-filling this morning remains likely, regardless of the new objective created above.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Bouncing off of the 2151.25 overnight low was extended to 6 points before dipping again to 2154.00. But 2158.00 still seems to be the most reliable line in the sand for anticipating this morning’s price action — be it trending back up through yesterday’s highs, or else backing-and-filling to test the 2148.00 area.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Do over.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s post-close Turkey plunger had been rejected at Sunday night’s open. Fresh highs overnight up to 2163.25 were retraced to greet Monday’s open back at Friday’s 2154.25 cash session close. A quick dip to 2153.00 was recovered enough only to attack Sunday night’s highs. Unfinished business above was left outstanding at 2163.75..
Overnight action’s new info…
Very narrow ranging around Monday’s 2160.00 close finally resolved, down. The first leg attacked 2155.00 before bouncing 3 points coming into Europe’s opens. The next leg attacked 2151.00 coming out of Europe’s opens. Now a bounce is testing 2155.00 as resistance, back at Friday’s close and Monday’s open.
If, then…
The only nearby attraction is yesterday’s “unfinished business above” at 2163.75 and then last week’s.2168.00 “new Globex trend extreme which requires intraday retest. Its orbit includes “lower prior highs” in the 2148.00 handle. The rubber band need not test 2148.00 before being stretched enough for snapping back up this morning, unless already snapping back up through the open. That would risk triggering a downleg under 2146.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2158.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2154.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2153.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2169.25 | 2163.00 |
| …would target | 2174.75 | 2168.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2160.00 | 2154.00 |
| …would target | 2153.75 | 2147.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The week got off to a fast start, gapping up from Friday’s post-close Turkey leg under 2152.00 and extending higher overnight to 2163.75.
The day got off to a slower start, detouring into negative territory at 2153.00 but only to test and hold support for a bounce up to 2162.00.
Then the day all but stopped, recovering from a relatively shallow noon hour dip back up to the morning’s 2162.00 high.
Buyers gained no traction for the effort, but left outstanding unfinished business above at 2163.75. Last week’s new Globex trend extreme at 2168,00 already requires an intraday retest. Only a significant gap down would break free from their attraction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.