Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Anticipation.
Still hovering at session highs.
The noon hour’s dip to 2157.25 was recovered back to the morning’s 2162.00 high. And no higher. It was touched as the final hour was entered. Its timing only reflects stronger buyers than sellers, which should marginalize sellers, but doesn’t require trending any higher.
Still, higher is where there is unfinished business, at this morning’s 2163.75 bias-up target, and last week’s 2168.00 “new Globex trend extreme.”
The 3:10-3:20 timing window is now probing even higher. That still wouldn’t require any specific behavior before the close, but the greater vulnerability remains up.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s break under uptrending support wasn’t confirmed by Monday’s narrow ranging, but neither was it negated, as almost any new weakness is likely to make the next downleg obvious.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
More testing of the 1333.00 buy signal Monday hasn’t made a bigger bounce any likelier, other than to make its further delay unlikely if another downleg is to be avoided.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday to test 19.90 was recovered to test the 20.05 pullback limit. Resuming the rally after Monday’s fresh low shouldn’t be further delayed if a retest of the post-Brexit highs remains likely near-term.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s late surge was retraced Monday to a fresh low under 171-00, deeper into the pullback’s 170-16/171-08 target range. There is no bullish reason for any deeper pullback or for much further delay in retesting recent highs.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Attacking 44.85 Monday retraced enough of the recent bounce to confirm the 46.00 bounce limit had held, and that at least a test of 43.00 remains in-play.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging narrowly Monday around unchanged confirmed that Friday’s dip didn’t stretch the rubber band enough for more than its intraday recovery. Nevertheless, closing above 2.80-2.85 would signal a new rally leg underway.
Mid-day Update… Consolidating the morning rally.
Awaiting more sponsorship.
The bullish WedEX is now moot. A 2-point post-open dip to 2153.00 support was reversed up to 2162.00. Bias-up triggered, putting into play 2163.75 which is now “unfinished business above.”
This afternoon’s no-bias environment can fluctuate between its signals. That allows room to this afternoon’s 2164.50 bias-up signal, which encompasses the unfinished business above.
No further rally today is required. But exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s 2157.75 low would be the first indication that this afternoon won’t likely rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 19, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s housing sector data tends to be reported widely, but has no recent track record for influencing price action.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2170.75 | 2164.50 |
| …would target | 2176.25 | 2170.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2161.25 | 2155.25 |
| …would target | 2154.75 | 2148.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.