Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Better late than never.
Post-open dip recovers well into positive territory.
The opening bar touched Friday afternoon’s 2157.25 high. Reversing down tested the preliminary 2153.00 indication. Its break through 9:45 would have made the 2158.00 bias-up signal unlikely to trigger.
It held.
That was the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The balance of the opening hour has trended up relentlessly to 2160.00. Bias-up triggered late, but its 2163.75 bias-up target is nonetheless in-play. And the bullish WedEX remains intact.
A spike up to 2161.50 tested 2160.00, which was the preliminary upside indicator. Although not touched by 9:45 like 2153.00 below, it’s still resistance. Preferably, its reaction down will hold 2158.75 before resuming the rally.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 2158.00 bias-up signal has been probed twice overnight, once to within 2-3 ticks of the 2163.75 bias-up target. But the open is being greeted within 2-3 ticks of Friday’s 2154.25 cash session close. Flat.
Inverting the signal Monday isn’t possible after it has been influential Friday. But too much delay in trending up post-open would question whether the signal withstood Friday’s post-close anomaly.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Take me back to Constantinople.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to 2164.00 originated too late to be credible, warning early that the 2161.50 bias-up signal wouldn’t trigger. Its 2152.00 objective was tested down to 2149.00. The bullish WedEX accompanied an afternoon recovery to 2157.00 before news of Turkey’s coup pushed price down into the close. Post-close action gapped down and extended sharply lower to 2143.00, 11 points under the cash session close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The coup didn’t succeed, if it was even a coup. Sunday night’s 2154.50 open immediately retraced everything under Friday’s cash session close. Immediately extending higher attacked 2161.00 before settling back down to 2155.00. Surging again through Europe’s opens tested 2163.00. That has also settled back down to 2155.00.
If, then…
I had published Monday’s bias parameters before Friday’s post-close plunge. The 2143.00 bias-down target defined the plunge’s low, and the 2163.75 bias-up target defined last night’s high. Since those levels are calculated from price action through Friday’s close, that helps to confirm expiration remains influential. Post-open action remains likely to fulfill the bullish WedEX signal.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2161.00 would be likely to trigger the 2158.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2153.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Overnight chaRTroom link
Turkey’s “coup” after Friday’s close has been followed by several more events over the weekend. And they’re all likely to stir-up sentiment. Overnight Globex action will be interesting, if not also telling — especially in the first opportunity to reject or to confirm Friday’s post-close plunge. The chaRTroom will open at 6:00 AM ET.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/16/16) …
Did Turkey’s failed coup attempt affect the bigger picture, let alone the bullish WedEX that seemed influential Friday afternoon? What are the week’s likely scenarios and paths? We address these and other questions during this week’s Saturday Review, while reviewing the many technical and chart setups that repeat often in the market.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GDX, GDXJ, AMZN, VZ, PM, RAI, HLF, STZ, VRX, X, FCX, RARE
07/16/2016 09:30:13 G: good morning
07/16/2016 09:30:59 David B: good morning
07/16/2016 09:58:35 David B: do you think earnings have already been discounted in the market?
07/16/2016 10:02:16 David B: so this rally has been anticipation of these earnings?
07/16/2016 10:02:38 Mark Glezer: FOMC is not until the following week, has to be another even that triggers a big move if it happens ?
07/16/2016 10:02:47 Mark Glezer: event
07/16/2016 10:03:53 David B: what will tell us that distribution is starting. what it be a certain closing level?
07/16/2016 10:05:33 David B: will it be a certain closing level
07/16/2016 10:07:59 David B: is there a level closed above that would confirm a bull market?
07/16/2016 10:09:05 David B: not strong hands driving this?
07/16/2016 10:09:14 David B: ok
07/16/2016 10:13:08 David B: AMZN,VZ
07/16/2016 10:13:14 Josey: PM, RAI
07/16/2016 10:15:15 ljr: HLF STZ short
07/16/2016 10:15:59 ljr: RARE long plz
07/16/2016 10:16:08 ljr: I’ll watch recording
07/16/2016 10:21:27 Mark Glezer: VRX – a lot of talks about it going to zero
07/16/2016 10:26:22 Josey: Yes
07/16/2016 10:26:41 William: Sterling : need to print a new low before rebounding more strongly ?
07/16/2016 10:28:58 David B: X,FCX
07/16/2016 10:45:00 Mark Glezer: thx much
07/16/2016 11:02:32 William: perfect as always, thanks
07/16/2016 11:02:36 Josey: Thank you!
07/16/2016 11:02:47 David B: thanks