Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
This week’s bullish WedEX accompanied an afternoon uptrend Friday from 2149.00 to 2157.00. This greatly increases the potential for trending up aggressively Monday morning. But it doesn’t have any bearing beyond regular trading hours. So, the influence couldn’t prevent a post-close plunge to 2143.25 on news of Turkey’s coup.
We have much to discuss.
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2164.25 | 2158.00 |
| …would target | 2170.00 | 2163.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2154.50 | 2148.25 |
| …would target | 2149.25 | 2143.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning was a downtrend. Its 2152.00 bias-down signal required a test for having held a test of the 2161.50 bias-up signal through 10:15. Thursday afternoon’s outstanding 2151.50 bias-down target had been neutralized overnight to within 3 ticks, but it was thoroughly tested anyway Friday down to 2149.00.
Then came the trend reversal. Friday afternoon’s bias environment was entered back at the noon hour’s high. Its exit began probing higher. And the position-squaring window was entered at 2157.00.
That was enough to consider the bullish WedEX a success. Monday morning should behave bullishly, too, and probably more aggressively. That didn’t protect from dropping into and out of the close to 2152.00 amid news of a coup attempt in Turkey.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us at 9:30 am ET for Saturday Review Monitor in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s weaker open broke under recent uptrending support and need only accelerate its decline a little to confirm momentum is reversing down to retest the post-Brexit 1.0945 low.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s attack on the 1333.00 target reacted back down overnight to retest Wednesday’s lows in the 1322.00 area Friday morning. There is no unfinished business below if a recovery is ready.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 20.05 pullback limit was retested Friday morning. Its reaction up was even more muted than was Thursday’s limited reaction. That is still likelier pessimism than optimism, which would be more bullish from a contrarian perspective.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 171-16/172-08 target area was probed Friday as support, and closing under it could prevent one more test of the recent topping area to complete it.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming further Friday tested the 46.00 bounce limit to keep alive this leg’s attraction down to 43.00.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Slightly lower lows at 2.67 was deep enough to stretch the rubber band tightly enough for a snap back up. Probing positive territory stopped a couple of pennies short of the minimum 2.80 target.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 18, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s housing sector report might get a price reaction, especially if surprising, if not for being the session’s only report.
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET