Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s choppiness certainly didn’t reject last week’s repeated dips back to relative lows. So the likelihood for breaking lower to retest the post-Brexit lows remains intact.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing back under 1365.50 Friday had signaled the intraday recovery attempt had failed. Not gapping up above it Monday makes Friday’s 1336.30 spike low likely to be retested, potentially down to 1322.00-1329.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday above all prior intraday highs still has yet to retest the 21.22 post-Brexit high. Its retest is likely so long as 20.05 now holds as support.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s intraday dip of more than 1 point further suggests the recent highs are toppy, as the current pattern has no higher calculable target without at least first correcting.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s modest strength didn’t prevent Monday attacking last week’s lows, further suggesting probing lower to test 43.00 .
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday pierced under last week’s 2.71-2/72 lows by 1-2 cents, essentially holding, and still requiring a close above 2.85 to resume the rally.
Mid-day Update… Up, but not out.
Probing new highs has run into a no-bias.
Maintaining the 2127.50 gap up through 9:45 had anchored the rally to prevent a reaction down from drifting off course. In fact, a blip-down touched 2125.25 and soon recovered back to and through the open’s 2132.50 high.
Firming attacked 2135.00 before the noon hour began, and 2137.00 before the noon hour ended. Not yet rejecting fresh extremes 40-45 minutes through the noon hour is essentially another anchor in case the rally drifts lower again.
This afternoon’s 2136.25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger, so extending higher isn’t likely until the bias environment begins lapsing. Room is available down to this afternoon’s 2129.00 bias-down signal need not be exploited fully.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 12, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open Job Openings report is an opportunity either to confirm or contradict Friday’s payrolls data, so the market tends to react to it.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
8:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2143.25 | 2136.25 |
| …would target | 2148.25 | 2141.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2136.00 | 2129.00 |
| …would target | 2131.00 | 2124.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Dropping anchor.
Gap up maintained long enough to matter.
Like Friday’s gap up, the opening 15 minutes of volatility didn’t reject it. Also like Friday, the open had trended up through 9:45, printing higher lows and higher highs to within 2 ticks of the 2133.00 overnight high.
Buyers have traction. But that doesn’t prevent reactions down.
Suddenly, a spike down to 2125.25 is making clear that upside momentum wasn’t helped during the 10:15 bias timing window. Choppy ranging did trigger bias-up, but didn’t renew it above the 2129.75 bias-up target.
A bias-up environment has room to range down to its 2124.00 bias-up signal as support. Backing-and-filling this morning is likely so long as the 2129.75 bias-up target isn’t recovered. Above it would target 2135.25-2136.00.