Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Choppy ranging around Friday’s 2125.50 high has twice tested this morning’s 2124.00 bias-down signal as support. Its reactions have repeatedly attacked the 2129.75 bias-up target to within 3 ticks. Coiling just under it ahead of the open suggests it will almost literally explode higher.
Like the overnight spike up to 2133.00, exploding higher still wouldn’t ensure trending up this morning — not without at least maintaining above Friday’s high through the open. Reversing back into negative territory could begin backing-and-filling into the afternoon.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… But, wait, there’s more!
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Only an errant tick exceeded our long-standing 2125.25 objective. Its test Friday entered the session’s attractions by gapping up above Thursday’s 2102.00 high. It was confirmed in-play by maintaining the gap up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Exiting Friday afternoon’s bias environment above prior highs then marginalized sellers for the balance of the day. The close was a new trend high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s closing action had dipped to test 2120.00, where Sunday night’s open ranged narrowly. Firming back toward 2125.25 soon spiked up to 2133.00 on news of Japan;s stimulus. The singular surge was never extended while consolidating back to 2128.00. Blipping down to 2123.00 after Europe’s opens has ranged back to 2129.00.
If, then…
Friday’s new trend high close already requires another eventual higher close. Not necessarily a consecutive higher close, regardless of Sunday night’s probe of new highs. Being a singular leg and not complex, that overnight high is not a “new Globex trend extreme” which would require intraday retest. So, exiting the open in negative territory could resume Friday’s late reaction down from 2125.25, and put the market on defense for today or longer. But exceeding 2125.25 through the open could trend up into the afternoon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2126.50 would be likely to trigger the 2124.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2134.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2129.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up target. Exiting the open under 2122.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Globex is trading.
So far, there’s nothing eventful about it. But the overnight Globex session is open, and you can monitor it in the chaRTroom here.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/9/16) …
Friday’s new high close is a double-edged sword. Fulfilling the outstanding objective at 2125.25 satisfies the buying pressure that created it. Not closing above it has failed to put into play any higher targets. But its reaction down came too late and was too shallow to reflect counter-trend sponsorship exploiting it. And reacting down on Mondays is usually only temporary when begun from a new trend high close on Fridays.
Did I say “double-edged” sword? Make that quintuple-edged.
It’s not so much about conflicting signals, as it is about no new signals. But the absence of a signal is often a signal, itself. At least, it starts limiting the likely templates going forward. And we discuss those possible paths during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
TWTR, MQTRF, TWMJF, AMZN, SODA, BAC, GOOG, WYNN, BIDU, NFLX
07/09/2016 09:23:48 Mark Glezer: gm
07/09/2016 09:23:52 David B: Good Morning
07/09/2016 09:47:17 Mark Glezer: why a decline that is faster than a prior move up requires a retracement to its origin?
07/09/2016 10:07:27 Mark Glezer: k
07/09/2016 10:18:29 Josey: MT:ca, CGC:ca Canadian tickers that I don’t think you can do, the US convenience tickers are MQTRF and TWMJF.
07/09/2016 10:18:47 ljr mobile: stocks: can you look at: AMZN, SODA, GOOG. (longs)
07/09/2016 10:21:25 Josey: Volume is in the Canadian tickers
07/09/2016 10:24:00 Josey: Yes
07/09/2016 10:24:53 ljr mobile: Wynn, Bidu (short), nflx, – only if u have time for these 3. thx
07/09/2016 10:33:42 Mark Glezer: BAC
07/09/2016 10:51:42 ljr mobile: thx for today!
07/09/2016 10:51:43 Mark Glezer: thx
07/09/2016 10:51:55 Josey: Ty
Saturday Review Link
Only an errant tick exceeded our long-standing 2125.25 objective. Having held, no higher target was put into play. And having held up so late in the day, a reversal down isn’t indicated. So, what’s next?
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!