Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2131.00 | 2124.00 |
| …would target | 2136.75 | 2129.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2124.25 | 2117.25 |
| …would target | 2117.50 | 2110.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
2089.75 is the lower-end of the pre-Brexit session two weeks ago. Closing above it last Friday had created the requirement to probe that session’s upper-end, targeting 2125.25.
An interim corrective dip was recovered to close back above 2089.75. And then Friday’s rally touched 2125.25. Barely. The final hour only trended down, but it was too late for a durable downleg to begin.
There’s no higher calculable objective. But a new trend high close on Fridays all but requires an eventual higher close. Nothing can prevent another interim pullback, but it would likely be only a temporary correction.
We’ll look at this in more detail during Saturday Review, starting at 9:30am ET.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Big target met.
Never underestimate Friday trending.
A bullish Brexit reaction would have targeted 2125.25. Retesting the pre-Brexit high has targeted 2125.25. The interim reaction down never affected the patterns which produced that calculable objective.
2125.25 was just met. Its test neutralized overbought RSIs at the prior high — now 1-minute RSI is diverging negatively. And the test is reacting down.
2125.25 was met on a very extended buy signal. It was triggered above 2111.75 when the morning bias environment was entered near the apex of a Symmetrical Triangle.
The bias environment exit was above all prior highs, which is nearly impossible to reverse down on Fridays. Back under 2122.50 might fit in a dip to 2119.00 or 2117.25. But this is the week’s most difficult time to attract counter-trend sponsorship — a dip is only viable because of all the buying pressure satisfied at 2125.25.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
.Choppy ranging around unchanged after Friday’s payrolls report didn’t alter the near-term attraction back down to retest prior lows, triggered under 1.1035-1.1045
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s late bounce had peaked before recovering the 1365.50 pullback limit, which Friday’s payrolls report leveraged to trigger a spike down to 1336.30. Already reacting back up to probe $6 above 1365.50 doesn’t lessen the likelihood of retesting the spike down’s low. Closing above 1365.50 would likely delay it until retesting the highs up to 1385.00..
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely failing to recover the 19.90 pullback limit Thursday opened the door to reacting sharply lower on Friday’s payrolls report. But spiking down to 19.28 was soon recovered well back up into positive territory at 20.15. Only ranging around 19.90 instead of closing above it doesn’t yet reinstate the potential to retest prior highs.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another shallow pullback avoided touching 174-10/174-24 and maintained the upside momentum to probe fresh highs up to 177-09. There is no further unfinished business above in this leg.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing 46.00 resistance early Friday was reversed down sharply to retest Thursday’s 44.85 low by a dime. Its test reacted back up to 45.00-45.40 which must hold to maintain this leg’s attraction down to 43.00.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Friday morning still needed to recover 2.85 to signal the pullback had ended, and that the gap back up to Friday’s 2.98 close was going to be filled, potentially on the way to higher highs..
Mid-day Update… Still a live session.
Fresh highs keeping alive the upside momentum.
The post-close pre-Brexit 2119.50 high was the next higher resistance above the 2115.00 objective. It’s just a prior high. It’s not an objective or target that fulfills buying pressure.
But testing it intraday makes closing back under it likely to extend into another deeper detour below.
2119.50 and its bias-up signal 1 tick higher were just touched at 1:30. Too late to invoke the grace period or to trigger, and too shallow to invalidate the no-bias. Probing higher anyway would be “no-bias trending” and doomed to failure.
Now having probed a fresh session high during the afternoon bias environment, exiting the bias environment back under a prior high or low could meltdown into the close. Otherwise, be very careful stepping in front of the uptrend.