Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 11, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar has no likelihood of influencing price action. The week does get busier, though, including Fed speakers.
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2127.00 | 2119.75 |
| …would target | 2132.25 | 2125.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2120.00 | 2113.00 |
| …would target | 2114.75 | 2107.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Entrenched. Like yesterday.
Yesterday’s open was strong-handed buyers, too.
At least two elements through this morning’s opening 15 minutes of volatility indicated the gap up would hold and the rally would extend. Sellers weren’t influencing price significantly, 
and the period formed uptrending.
Just maintaining an opening gap through the open tends to extend further. And further. And further.
Any cause for concern would be due linked to yesterday’s reaction. Tracking the bullish template didn’t prevent reversing back down through the morning and afternoon bias environments. Always suggesting weak-handed sponsorship, and holding the maximum 2082.00 pullback limit – it wasn’t destructive, but it was productive.
RSIs were slow to get overbought, and the next higher objective at 2115.00 has been attacked to within 5 ticks. The pullback limit was probed for 3 minutes down to 2110.25, and that didn’t hold. A shallower pullback than yesterday is still possible, and could still be relatively deep — like down to 2104.00.
Keeping sellers from retaking control should still extend higher today, and not just range sideways.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Payrolls was greeted near overnight highs, in a narrowly ranging consolidation, centered around this morning’s 2096.75 bias-up signal. Its spike up to 2108.75 immediately neutralized yesterday’s 2103.25 unfinished business above. Reacting down to 2102.00 was recovered to 2110.00.
Now 2103.25 is being attacked as support.
Maintaining a gap up above yesterday morning’s 2102.00 high would enable trending up into the afternoon. Otherwise, today’s intraday trend still can reverse down if 2101.00 and 2098.25 don’t hold through the open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Employment Situation coming.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s bullish scenario began unfolding at the opening ticks. But surging substantially and then triggering bias-up couldn’t prevent sliding into the noon hour until the final hour..Holding the session’s 2082.00 pullback limit allowed the final hour’s 10-point bounce to at least test the morning’s lows, but not to recover them. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2103.25 bias-up target.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late rally initially extended a couple of points to 2094.00, but still reacted down into negative territory at 2087.50. Europe’s opens triggered more of a spike up than a surge, soon attacking 2097.50. A 7-point slide retraced almost all of the spike, but only briefly, as 2097.50 is now being retested.
If, then…
Buyers didn’t gain traction yesterday, so resuming yesterday morning’s rally this morning would require gapping up above yesterday morning’s 2102.00 high. That’s only another 5-points above the current Globex highs, with a catalyst coming next hour — the Employment Situation report. By the same token, sellers didn’t gain traction yesterday, either, so gapping down in reaction to the payrolls report must open at or under 2082.00 to extend deeper. That’s the rally’s pullback limit, so any lower would threaten the recovery. This being Friday, attracting sponsorship for extending a knee-jerk reaction may be more difficult than attracting sponsorship for sustaining its reaction.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications are not available ahead of an Employment Situation report.