Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2104.00 | 2096.75 |
| …would target | 2110.50 | 2103.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2092.00 | 2084.75 |
| …would target | 2086.50 | 2079.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
A funny thing happened on the way to recovery highs…
Gapping up just enough to qualify for Thursday’s bullish scenario, surging substantially and then triggering bias-up, just couldn’t prevent sliding into the noon hour until the final hour.
The slide began too late and was too slow to prevent forming “unfinished business above” at the morning’s 2103.25 bias-up target. The session’s 2082.00 pullback limit didn’t require being tested, but it defined the session low anyway.
The final hour’s bounce attacking 2092.00 held at or under the morning’s bias environment lows. The near-term trend hasn’t reversed back up. Gapping above the prior session’s high would again be bullish, albeit much more difficult Friday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Bookends?
Closing bounce trying to duplicate open’s surge.
Whether originating from the open or from the open’s surge, a pullback had room down to 2082.00 before even threatening the uptrend. Now the open’s surge to 2102.00 has reversed down to 2082.00.
RSIs diverged positively into the test, which didn’t resolve up quickly. Fresh lows had been probed after the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30, but they weren’t rejected by fresh highs going into the final hour. And now an inflection point is being tested at 2086.75 but not yet exceeded.
Back under 2084.00 would trigger another downleg. Otherwise, there remains potential for extending higher into the close, but not necessarily aggressively, not necessarily substantially, and not necessarily.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s intraday recovery was rejected by Thursday’s gap down, and then extending down into the afternoon. Ultimately an inside day, a retest of post-Brexit lows is still likely.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1365.50 pullback limit was being tested at Thursday’s open, and being probed down to 1352.00 Thursday morning. Recovering into the afternoon attacked 1365.50 as resistance. Its recovery would target 1386.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 19.90 pullback limit failed Thursday morning, triggering a deeper dip to 19.52. Its reaction attacked 20.90, which must be recovered to retest recent highs.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Shallow overnight weakness enabled Thursday’s retest of Tuesday and Wednesday’s highs, and maintains potential for rallying further so long as 174-10/174-24 holds as support.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming further after Wednesday’s close held a test of the original 48.25-48.75 area’s sell signal. Thursday morning’s reaction to the delayed EIA report plunged to test the 45.00-45.40 target area down to 44.85. There is potential to 43.00 so long as bounces now hold 46.25.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and firming to 2.84 reacted down to Thursday morning’s EIA report. Negative territory down to 2.72 avoided fresh pullback lows, and recovered positive territory. Back above 2.85 would target filling the gap back up to Friday’s 2.98 close, and potentially resuming the rally.
Mid-day Update… Traction-less.
Open’s surge turns bad.
This morning’s 2097.00 bias-up signal triggered. It wasn’t rejected at 10:15, when the surge to 2102.00 was consolidating. It was probed soon after, but still held above the 2088.00 bias-down signal that would have rejected it at 11:30.
The noon hour and its entry repeatedly tested 2089.75 as support. That has resolved down to fresh lows at 2085.00. The afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down signal has triggered the grace period — it can be invalidated if recovered through 1:30.
Dipping this morning instead of rallying would have had room down to 2082.00 as just a temporary correction. That’s still the case, regardless of the open’s interim surge. Regardless, this morning’s 2103.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business above” that requires being tested eventually.