Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2096.50 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2102.75 | 2094.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2084.50 | 2076.00 |
| …would target | 2079.50 | 2071.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Last week’s tremendous recovery of the Brexit reaction had been vulnerable to a pullback at any step of the way. By Friday, its potential was to 2076.00 or 2071.00. On Monday, it reached 2072.50.
Despite recovering intraday to 2083.50, it’s probably not a durable bottom. Recovering a little less a little earlier would have been more credible as strong-handed. So, retesting Tuesday’s lows before resuming the rally would help to launch the next upleg.
The next upleg remains likely to develop. The pullback into Tuesday’s lows originated from having closed Friday above 2089.75. The reward of probing the pre-Brexit high back to 2125.25 remains outstanding, and fulfilling it from this unfinished bottom would be doomed to failure.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Detour possible, barely.
Too late for more than an obligatory bounce.
The bias environment’s 2072.50 lows reacted up to 2079.00 before retracing entirely. And only entirely. Not pierced or probed by a fresh low, and not just attacked. Touched.
The next reaction up has recovered gradually to test 2078.00. That’s pretty good, for a bounce that wasn’t required, and which is likely to fail.
2078.00 could be probed aggressively (being tested now), without reversing back down before the close. It would likely not be durable, but it could be very productive meanwhile. Otherwise, back under 2075.00 would target 2071.00, if not also lower.
Mid-day Update… Gravity still sucks.
Unable to bounce off of morning lows.
Probing under this morning’s 2085.00 bias-down target wasn’t recovered in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. That essentially put into play the 2076.00 renewed bias-down target.
2076.00 was attacked, tested, retested and probed. It is still being tested as the afternoon bias environment is entered.
Avoiding lower lows is unlikely, despite this afternoon now being a no-bias environment. Whether it’s 2073.50 bias-down signal, or down to 2071.00, fresh lows would make a later recovery effort above 2080.00 more credible.
The risk in probing lower is in not recovering. The pattern’s structure requires recovering from a fresh low to form a durable bottom. But that’s also how a new downleg gets underway if not recovered.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 6, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar wasn’t high-profile, while Wednesday’s is almost nothing but. Two pre-open speakers interrupt several econ reports, and then the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes is reliable for influencing price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
8:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Daniel Tarullo Speaks
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET