Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2093.50 | 2084.75 |
| …would target | 2098.50 | 2090.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2082.00 | 2073.50 |
| …would target | 2077.50 | 2068.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sentiment stands.
Overnight slide extends to fresh lows.
The open was greeted at the 2085.00 bias-down target. Blipping-up to 2086.50 created a slingshot effect that plunged to fresh lows at 2077.50. And that is now probing lower to 2076.75.
2076.75 is within 3 ticks of what is essentially the 2076.00 renewed bias-down target. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged positively at the low.
Back above 2080.75 would signal at least a corrective bounce up to the 2085.00 bias-down target. Meanwhile, the trend may extend next down to 2071.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A reaction off of 2082.00 reached 2088.00 before reversing to fresh lows at 2081.00. All of which has been ranging around this morning’s 2085.00 bias-down target, which is being tested more narrowly just ahead of the open.
Nothing requires retesting the overnight low, or prevents rallying this morning. But renewing the bias-down signal would target much lower lows in the correction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… It goes down, too.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Despite Thursday’s rally attacking 2089.75, Friday morning’s surge attacking 2101.00 wasn’t destined to extend relentlessly intraday — regardless of the bullish implications to recovering 2089.75, and despite the prior three intradays pattern. Friday Factors.make afternoon trending less likely. But while they inhibited extending higher, Friday Factors also prevented the intraday pullback from actually reversing the trend back down into the weekend.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s holiday price action first probed above last week’s highs to attack 2105.00. That was retraced to attack 2095.00.Monday night’s Globex action never really restarted Sunday night’s rally effort. Soon a different direction emerged — sliding to 2090.00 was consolidated shallowly, and then resolved down to 2082.00..
If, then…
2082.00 hasn’t printed since Thursday’s noon hour. Tuesday’s post-open action is vulnerable to extending the overnight slide. In fact, we discussed the potential for correcting down immediately, which could next target 2076.00 or 2071.00. None of which changes whether 2089.75 was recovered, and whether that recovery requires probing fresh highs up to 2125.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2082.50 would be likely also not to recover the 2085.00 bias-down target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2093.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2090.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Globex chaRTroom access and update
S&Ps resumed trading as usual Sunday night, in a session ending at 1:00 pm ET today. They’ll re-open at 6:00 pm ET tonight.
Choppy trading probed higher at times, but also lower, greeting tonight’s open almost unchanged.
Precious Metals have been much more interesting. Silver had rallied already last week to its 18.80 target before Gold fulfilled its retest of 1362.50. That was nothing compared to Sunday night, which saw Silver surge to a $21 handle. Volatility should ripple through the markets.
Monitor tonight’s Globex trading in the chaRTroom by clicking here.