Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2110.25 | 2101.75 |
| …would target | 2114.25 | 2106.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2098.25 | 2090.00 |
| …would target | 2093.50 | 2085.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 5, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday-shortened week is creating a busier daily calendar. That might create more opportunity for contradictory reports to be released simultaneously. But not Tuesday, which doesn’t have much influential in its reports, until for the afternoon’s Fed speaker.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
1:00 PM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
2:30 PM ET
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!
We started the Market Wrap before Friday’s close, and expanded it to cover the bigger picture since there is no Saturday Review this weekend.
Thursday’s last hour had hovered pessimistically short of 2089.75 “higher prior lows” from the pre-Brexit Thursday highs. Friday did the opposite by immediately surging higher to attack 2101.00. Timing windows recovered 2089.75 for long enough to further reward the rally with new highs. That means probing above the prior Thursday’s post-close 2119.50 high, presumably to 2125.25. A corrective dip isn’t required, but would have potential to 2076.00 or to 2071.00 without yet suggesting that Monday’s 1981.50 lows might be retested first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here (which includes the bigger picture review).
Globex will re-open normally Sunday evening at 6:00 ET and trade through 1:00 PM on the 4th, then re-open at 6:00 ET Monday evening.
Pre-close View… Drip, drip, drop. (Plus special note)
MARKET WRAP WILL BEGIN EARLY AT 3:50 ET, AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE BIGGER PICTURE.
This morning’s 2100.75 high reacted down aggressively, soon after persistently overbought 3-minute RSI had finally left overbought territory.
Reacting down through both the noon hour and the afternoon bias environment is testing 2091.00. And meanwhile 3-minute RSI has repeatedly attacked oversold territory without probing it.
The near-term potential below is at 2088.00, if not also 2086.00. If the slide were to become frenzied, then it could extend next down to 2076.00 or even to 2071.00.
The bias environment was exited at the noon hour’s 2093.00 low but not still under it. The final hour’s entry is threatening the bias environment’s 2091.75 low. Still not probing fresh afternoon lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window could avoid any further dip today.
Framing this week with aggressive slides both into and out of it would be more poetic than predictive. Regardless, don’t underestimate the velocity of a late leg in either direction.
REMINDER: There is no Saturday Review tomorrow, so today’s Market Wrap will be expanded to cover the bigger picture… and it will begin early at 3:50 ET before the close.
Mid-day Update… Backing-and-filling.
Opening surge being retraced.
This morning’s surge from its 2089.00 open to attack 2100.00 has retraced steadily into the noon hour’s exit at 2092.00. This action helps to confirm that the opening strength was fueled by weaker handed buyers fearing another runaway session.
Dipping through the noon hour need not recover, let alone resume the rally. Not today. Which leaves potential for a late-afternoon slide. Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 still in positive territory could at least undermine fresh lows, but not necessarily inspire a rally.
Nothing about this morning’s rally makes an afternoon slide any less likely. It was never the likeliest scenario. Nevertheless, still not extending higher by 2:30 would be vulnerable.