Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Holding up through the afternoon’s no-bias environment wasn’t required to resolve Thursday. But resolving up anyway would have targeted 2106.00. It was touched just minutes after the cash session close.
That was pretty quick to neutralize a near-term objective put into play less than 30 minutes earlier. This morning’s 2099.50 target was met almost as quickly. All after gapping up sharply, and then pulling back shallowly.
Optimism. Possibly, excessive optimism.
The rally fulfilled buying pressure intraday. No traction was gained for its efforts. Extending higher Friday before late-afternoon requires the open to gap up.
Overnight action should be interesting as vote results are reported.Higher highs have potential to 2015.00. A reaction down has room to 2088.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Back to it?
No-bias has lapsed, attacking session highs.
Reacting down from the 2099.50 target touched 2094.50, natural support of today’s opening print. Choppy ranging ahead of Brexit results can start resolving. In fact, firming into the no-bias environment’s exit has extended up to 2099.25.
That said, entering the final hour above this morning’s highs would have been bullish. Otherwise, being able to resolve doesn’t require resolving.
Resuming the rally isn’t required — not today, not ever.
But trending to fresh session highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window could extend up to 2106.00 and higher before the close. Back under 2096.00 would more likely dip back into the open’s range.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trending up sharply overnight opened Thursday above two-week old highs, despite Sunday night’s high already filling its gap. Reacting back down to “lower prior highs” now allows a top to form after filling the gap back up to Thursday’s opening open 1.4315, or to extend higher without leaving outstanding any unfinished business below.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s close wasn’t already recovering above Monday’s 1278.00 high, and Thursday’s open wasn’t gapping up above 1281.00 by proxy, so fresh lows were probed through Thursday morning. Having touched 1260.00, closing above 1272.50 would start to signal the drop was ending.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still didn’t probe the lower-end of its range Thursday, but neither did it recovery, still suggesting the Gold pullback isn’t going to gain traction.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s close wasn’t already recovering above Monday’s 168-12 high, and Thursday’s open wasn’t gapping up by proxy above 169-00, so fresh lows were probed through Thursday morning attacking 166-00. A recovery attempt at this stage wouldn’t be credible before probing into the 165-16/165-30 range.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s test of the 48.75 sell signal had recovered to close at or above 49.00. Gapping up Thursday was held by resistance at 50.00 in positive territory without trending up, so the sell signal remains alive.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction down after EIA was much shallower than the room allowed, only testing “lower prior highs” of the recent narrow consolidation at 2.61 before bouncing back into positive territory above Wednesday’s 2.68 close. Closing under 2.60 would still target 2.47-2.51.
Mid-day Update… Time to duck?
Upside fulfilled without higher targets in-play, news looming.
Having renewed its bias-up signal, and despite already fulfilling its 2095.00 renewed bias-up target, fresh highs were likely to test the 2099.50 doubly-renewed bias-up target.
2099.50 was this morning’s high, touched twice before noon. The reaction down is attacking 2095.00.
Having fulfilled the upside target and held it, the balance of the session may very well focus on the coming Brexit/Bremain vote results, and only range choppily. Any advance news that suggests Remain will win could trigger another upleg anyway.
Whether in anticipation of Remain or in reaction to it, higher highs have potential to 2015.00. Otherwise, back-and-filling still has room down to 2088.00. Back under 2084.00 would start to signal a more substantial decline underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 24, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s econ reports are all reliably influential to price action. More so, a reaction to the pre-open Durable Goods report would be likely to repeat in reaction to the post-open Consumer Sentiment.
Robert Kaplan Speaks
THU 6:30 PM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET