Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2108.75 | 2100.50 |
| …would target | 2114.25 | 2106.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2101.25 | 2093.25 |
| …would target | 2096.25 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Held up.
Reacting down into and out of the open.
The overnight pullback from 2102.00 greeted the open at 2094.05 before extending deeper to 2089.00. That tested the 2089.75 bias-up target, which held, renewing the bias-up signal. The 2095.00 renewed bias-up target has been met. The next higher attraction would be 2099.50.
Potential for deeper backing-and0-filling down to 2088.00 may have been avoided. The reaction up has twice tested 2095.50. It’s similar to yesterday morning’s retest of its 2091.25 high — bad news blind-sided the attempt to extend the upleg.
This morning’s news is worse, a shooting in a Viernheim, Germany cinema complex. But its effect is similar, triggering a sudden 5-1/2 point plunge.
Meanwhile, the open avoided touching higher prior lows at 2097.00-2101.00. Therefore, its resistance is not rejected, despite having held an overnight test. Exiting the bias environment above 2095.50 would be likely to resume the rally. Under 2088.00 would start signaling a deeper detour.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from 2102.00 has deepened, now touching 2093.00. If “higher prior lows” at 2097.00-2101.00 are touched post-open, then extending higher through 9:45, or not, would make the difference for this morning’s trending. Patiently avoiding the higher prior lows could be the most bullish scenario.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Remain seems to be leading.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Janet, who? Gapping up and absorbing a negligible reaction to Yellen still failed to trigger Wednesday morning’s bias-up signal. No-bias trending above it attacked Monday morning’s 2092.50 high to within 6 ticks… 
Remain, what? An anti-Brexit poll reversed that effort, eventually probing negative territory and triggering the afternoon’s bias-down signal. Sellers gained no traction while afternoon ranging probed fresh lows at 2075.25. “Unfinished business below” was left outstanding at 2073.75, adding to 2070.75 from Tuesday.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday evening’s Globex open gapped up to 2083.00 and spiked up to attack 2090.00. Ranging sideways was essentially defined by this morning’s 2084.25 and 2089.75 bias-up signal and its target. Testing the range’s lower-end through Europe’s opens was recovered to the range’s upper-end. Then a break higher surged to and through 2091.00-2092.50 prior highs to 2102.00. Its reaction down to 2095.50 is now trying to recover.
If, then…
Probing Monday’s 2092.50 high was kept alive by multiple attacks on it that repeatedly stopped pessimistically short of actually touching prior interim highs. This behavior was potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Testing the unfinished business below at 2073.75 and 2070.75 overnight would have been vulnerable to greeting this morning’s open already recovered back in positive territory. Now that shoe is on the other foot, already neutralizing the attraction above. The optimism hasn’t yet reached proportions that would make it potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Two-week old highs could be probed by 5 points up to 2114.75, first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] This morning’s bias parameters are far below. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2100.75 would be likely to maintain the upward momentum. Exiting the open under 2095.25 would be likelier to dip back into the earlier ranging.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2092.75 | 2084.25 |
| …would target | 2098.25 | 2089.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2082.25 | 2073.75 |
| …would target | 2077.00 | 2068.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.