Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Janet, who? Gapping up and absorbing a negligible reaction to Yellen still failed to trigger Wednesday morning’s bias-up signal. No-bias trending above it attacked Monday morning’s 2092.50 high to within 6 ticks.
Remain, what? An anti-Brexit poll reversed that effort, eventually probing negative territory and triggering the afternoon’s bias-down signal. Afternoon ranging probed fresh lows at 2075.25, a compelling hold-short with “unfinished business below” at 2073.75 and 2070.75.
Although not required, a more thorough test of Monday’s 2092.50 high can’t be discounted, or probing above it by another 2 points. Testing 2073.75 and 2070.75 — whether overnight, or early Thursday — would still have room down to 2069.00 before suggesting otherwise.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s “inside day” didn’t form a setup with near-term trigger or objective.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping a little deeper overnight didn’t extend down Wednesday, instead holding Tuesday’s lows. It certainly wasn’t reversed intraday to end the session in recovery mode. Gapping up Thursday would be the last opportunity to maintain a near-term retest of 1308.50.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing lower overnight didn’t extend down Wednesday, but neither did it serve to slingshot price back up toward last week’s 17.80 gap up that should still be retested.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Without gapping up Wednesday above the 169-00 pullback limit, the current dip is not any likelier to be reversed into a new upleg targeting 171-22. Gapping up Thursday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing fresh bounce highs up to 50.55 overnight was reversed intraday back down to the 48.75 sell signal, which was tested as support through Wednesday afternoon before reacting back up above 49.00.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s dip back down through the rally’s 2.75 target isn’t greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness, since there is potential for a third higher close. That wouldn’t prevent an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down to 2.51 or lower.
Mid-day Update… Poles vaulting.
Increased Brexit support triggers slide.
Monday morning’s 2092.50 high was attacked to within 6 ticks. Any room for testing it up to 2094.50 has been rendered moot. A pro-Brexit poll result was released, triggering a plunge to 2084.25.
Back under 2087.00 was likely to test 2084.50. But back above 2087.50 was needed to reinstate the rally. Touching it reversed won to test 2080.50 and then 2076.50.
2080.50 is also this afternoon’s bias-down signal, and it triggered. The 2073.75 bias-down target is in-play. Its test should also visit the “unfinished business below” outstanding from yesterday at 2070.75.
We have no control over the headlines, let alone their timing. Regardless of any confidence in actually probing above Monday’s highs — which is less confident now, since the attraction up to Monday’s highs is mostly satisfied — don’t take any trending for granted .
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 23, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Britain’s “Brexit” vote results won’t be known intraday. And the day’s busy econ calendar has only two items with any reliable track record for influencing price action. But at some point intraday, the Fed will announce results of recent bank stress tests.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2097.25 | 2088.75 |
| …would target | 2102.75 | 2094.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2089.00 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2082.25 | 2073.75 |
| Signal status:BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.