Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 16, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Philly Fed survey is the only regional survey with a reliable track record for influencing price action.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Survey
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.25 | 2075.25 |
| …would target | 2089.75 | 2080.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2073.50 | 2064.50 |
| …would target | 2068.00 | 2059.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Spriiing, spriiing, sprii-?
Optimism persists ahead of the afternoon FOMC events.
The pre-open pullback to 2067.50 had recovered to greet the open piercing back above the 2069.75 bias-up signal. Post-open action trended up to within 2-3 ticks of the 2076.00 bias-up target.
But no higher.
This is a bias-up environment. Although its target hasn’t been met, it has been met closely enough to prevent it from becoming “unfinished business above” if not met this morning. Still, being a bias-up environment, extending higher is possible despite not renewing the signal.
Not likely.
Strong-handed buyers will be difficult to attract with the afternoon’s FOMC news looming. Meanwhile, the bias-up environment could still dip back down to attack or test its 2069.75 bias-up signal as support.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from retesting yesterday morning’s 2072.75 high is extending to 2067.50 pre-open. That’s under the 2069.75 bias-up signal, but not yet deeply enough to inhibit triggering it an hour from now. Its greater challenge is to generate sponsorship with this afternoon’s FOMC events looming. Not triggering it would make yesterday’s lows likely to be attacked or probed.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Hope keeps springing.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Hope sprang eternal Tuesday, to the extent possible for trading almost entirely in negative territory. Gapping down to 2065.00 bounced immediately, filling the gap from Monday’s 2069.75 close up to 2072.75. Sliding sharply to 2054.75 into the bias environment exit reacted up again to the 2065.00 open. The final hour was greeted back at the morning’s 2054.75 low, which then bounced throughout to within 2 points of Monday’s close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Encouraged by China devaluing the Yuan to its lowest levels in 5 years, hope is springing overnight, too. Globex dipped initially to 2059.75 which retraced 61.8% of Tuesday’s final hour rally. Since that correction, the balance of the night has rallied. Yesterday morning’s 2072.75 high was retested by 2 ticks before dipping 3 points.
If, then…
Closing above yesterday morning’s 2072.75 high would have sealed a bottom by holding the test of 2063.50. No opening strength today can serve by proxy, because it would leave outstanding a gap back to yesterday’s lower close. And that’s assuming the overnight rally can even extend above yesterday morning’s high. If there’s something to be said for positioning ahead of a relief rally to be triggered by this afternoon’s likely FOMC inaction, then it goes equally to sell strength when anxiousness ahead of the news paralyzes price action. Probing higher this morning is possible, but unlikely to resolve favorably. The most bullish template would probe intraday under yesterday’s lows, and then recover to close above yesterday’s highs.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2072.75 would be likely to trigger the 2069.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2066.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.