Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2079.00 | 2069.75 |
| …would target | 2085.00 | 2076.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2069.50 | 2060.50 |
| …would target | 2062.25 | 2053.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
2063.50 was tested, probed thoroughly, all without closing under it. But it is still in the process of being tested, and did not necessarily hold. So the premise remains that a deeper drop targeting 2043.00 is underway.
No early strength Wednesday would qualify as a delayed signal that 2063.50 had held as support. Gapping up could extend higher before the afternoon’s FOMC events, but that would create “unfinished business below” back down to Tuesday’s close. Delaying a rally until late-afternoon would be credible for extending.
Otherwise, fresh session lows Wednesday are likely — whether that creates another opportunity for 2063.50 to ultimately hold, or confirms that 2043.00 remains in-play.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s gap up helped to invalidate Friday’s break to fresh lows, and to keep alive the likelihood for retesting last week’s 1.1400 high close. Gapping down Tuesday to retest Monday’s lows must avoid closing negative to maintain that recovery potential.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Choppy trading overnight and Tuesday didn’t reject Monday’s gap up and intraday extension, keeping alive this leg’s 1312.00 target.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s fluctuation didn’t threaten reversing momentum down, which keeps alive the 17.60 target of this upleg.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Breaking above 168-00 Friday had signaled a new upleg underway, which was confirmed by not rejecting it Monday. Attacking 170-00 Tuesday must now hold 169-00 on pullbacks to maintain upward momentum next targeting 171-24.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s intraday bounce testing 49.00 was extended down overnight to fresh lows attacking 48.00. The session’s “ineffectual optimism” avoided fresh lows without any reward, so the decline should accelerate without delay if its momentum remains intact.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still inhibited by the lack of any recent pullback, dipping prior to Tuesday’s open reveals the rally’s risk in trying to extend higher without a correction.
Mid-day Update… Clawing at the walls.
Trying to escape the trend’s lower lows.
The noon hour’s bounce from 2055.00 to 2066.00 couldn’t maintain its probe above this afternoon’s 2062.00 bias-up signal. In the morning, this setup would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2056.50 bias-down signal.
The afternoon doesn’t require it. The no-bias environment still has room down to 2056.50. But price only continues hovering under 2062.00.
Back above 2063.75 would suggest another fresh session high underway, regardless of it originating during a no-bias environment. Meanwhile, fresh session lows remain likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 15, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s PPI is high-profile, and often influences price action. But the afternoon’s FOMC events are much more relevant, even without the ongoing struggle between either hiking rates, or just promising it. And volatility is very reliable during Fed Chair Yellen’s quarterly Q&A.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Policy Statement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET