Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Bouncing throughout Monday’s noon hour and bias environment repeatedly resolved in fresh lows. The position-squaring window trended down to close around 2069.00-2070.00.
Pretty good word for the decline, after invalidating higher objectives put into play by the morning’s no-bias signal. Having confirmed with a fresh high opst-10:15, a lot of serious selling pressure was required to exit the bias environment at fresh session lows.
Strong-handed buyers overcome by stronger-handed sellers. Are even stronger-handed buyers next?
A “session-long rally” setup would form by gapping up Tuesday above Monday afternoon’s 2080.25 / 2081.50 bias environment’s highs, having trended down into Monday’s close. Otherwise, extending down would next target 2063.50 and potentially also 2043.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Getting late for a bottom.
Chipping away at the afternoon bias environment’s support.
The noon hour touched this afternoon’s 2076.25 bias-down signal but held it easily through 1:20 to trigger no-bias. Bouncing to attack 2083.00 resolved down to fresh lows at 2075.00. Ranging back up to 2080.00 has resolved down to 2073.00.
And now the final hour is being entered. Fresh lows are printing. There’s one more opportunity to trap shorts by isolating the afternoon’s chipping away at support.
Entering the position-squaring window around 3:37pm above 2077.50 or 2078.50 would be vulnerable to a squeeze. Otherwise, the decline from last week’s highs can carry through tomorrow morning.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday and extending higher intraday helps to confirm that Friday’s break lower was false. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm last week’s 1.1400 high close is being targeted, and potentially also 1.1550.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply Monday to test 1290.00 found resistance, but did not reject the second consecutive gap’s recovery. Fresh relative highs targeting 13112.00 are likely so long as pullbacks now hold 1280.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming into the new week keeps alive potential for this leg to reach 17.60 which would be vulnerable to reversing down if Gold were simultaneously fulfilling its objective.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s fresh highs were maintained but not extended while stocks tested and retested Friday’s lows. Not immediately rejecting Friday’s fresh highs doesn’t prevent dipping anyway, but it makes a dip likely to recover and to resume the rally.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s break under the 50.15 sell signal gapped down deeper Monday. Bouncing intraday held 49.00 resistance before reversing back down in the afternoon, as the capitulation pattern presumably develops.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not yet dipping to a more constructive pullback test like 2.51 or 2.47 probably inhibited Monday’s gap up from being more productive than momentarily piercing Friday’s high. Spending the entire session in positive territory formed “ineffectual optimism,” which can’t afford to hesitate extending higher Tuesday to avoid even deeper pullback potential.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 14, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Retail Sales is a high-profile econ report, but it has no reliable track record for influencing price action. Neither do any of Tuesday’s other reports.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Mid-day Update… Slow-playing the upside.
No-bias signal’s reward rescinded.
Holding a test of the 2082.00 bias-down signal through 10:!5 had put into play an offsetting test of the 2093.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the bias environment back under 2082.00 would have invalidated the reward for originally having held it. Otherwise, 2093.00 would become “unfinished business above.”
But fresh highs were probed after 10:15. Now sponsorship was attracted. Invalidating the reward would now require not only waning sponsorship, but also greater counter-trend sponsorship. And that would be signaled by exiting the bias environment under the open’s 2078.50 low.
The bias environment started lapsing at 11:30 from above 2082.00. But the noon hour was entered at fresh session lows testing 2076.00. The 2093.00 objective is NOT “unfinished business above.”
That’s not bullish, but neither is it necessarily bearish. The likelier bearish templates would have retaken control this morning. This probe can still be absorbed. If it’s not, then the decline unfolding from last week’s highs remains intact, and pointed sharply lower.